MLB Free Premium Card 05/04

MLB - 953 Philadelphia Phillies @ 954 Washington Nationals

(Starting Pitchers: K. Kendrick vs S. Strasburg)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 953 Philadelphia Phillies ML (w/ K. Kendrick) @ +168 / 2.68 on 5Dimes

MLB - 961 Atlanta Braves @ 962 Colorado Rockies

(Starting Pitchers: T. Hudson vs G. Moscoso)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 962 Colorado Rockies ML (w/ G. Moscoso) @ +100 / 2.00 on 5Dimes

MLB - 973 Baltimore Orioles @ 974 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: W.Y. Chen vs J. Lester)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 973 Baltimore Orioles ML (w/ W.Y. Chen) @ +144 / 2.44 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/03: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Dallas Mavericks

NBA - 537 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 538 Dallas Mavericks

Projected line: 188 points | Dallas by 6 points

Dallas could have won both games in Oklahoma City, but down the stretch they made some silly errors. This is surprising because in my opinion we are talking one of the three teams, together with Boston and San Antonio, best well coached in terms of game planning. What was clear was that Dallas can defend Oklahoma City very well in half court. In fact, in game 2, we had Durant with -7 in the team's +/- in 43 minutes played, with Westbrook also having -3 in the team's +/-! The key for the Thunder's win was their bench. Oklahoma City struggled in P&R's, spot ups and even in post up plays, however they excelled in two areas: free throws with 37-39 FT and transitions with 10-14 FG in transition plays!

For today, I expect to see the refs favoring a bit the home team and with that Dallas will be more physical. I also think that Dallas has advantage in slowing down the pace, preventing Oklahoma City to have a huge number of transitions points today. With this, I expect Dallas to have the edge in the half court and looking at how important this game is for the defending champions, I expect a massive effort from them today. Therefore, I expect a good win for Dallas in a slow paced game and so, I'll be taking both Dallas and the Under today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 537/538 Under 194 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 538 Dallas Mavericks (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/03: Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

NBA - 535 Miami Heat @ 536 New York Knicks

Projected line: 182 points

For today, we have two new situations on this series. First of all, Bosh had some personal stuff to handle and he is probable for today, but the fact he didn't have his usual routine may put him off rhythm for this game. Besides that, Amare is out for today and so, we can expect Melo to play at PF, just like the Knicks played for most of the last month of the regular season. Looking at the first two games of this series, we can immediately look at the incredibly slow pace the games had: 84.2 & 82.7! Miami is okay to play in half court and they were incredibly effective on spot up plays with 12-25 FG, with 8-15 3pts included! On the other hand, the Knicks were red hot with 13-23 FG on ISO plays, with 5 of their players shooting over 50% FG!

I believe this game will also have a super slow pace, like it happened in the first two contests of the series. Miami won both games and so, they won't want to change, while the Knicks like we've watched in Game 1 really want to avoid turnovers, in order to prevent Miami to score a lot of transitions points. So, it would be needed another super game from both offenses today for this game to go Over the total posted, something I don't believe it will happen due to Bosh's and Amare's situations. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 535/536 Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 533 Los Angeles Clippers @ 534 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 175 points

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

The Game 1 of this series was crazy, with Memphis having a huge lead during the game, but then the Clippers finished the game with a 26-1 run in the last 8:23 of the game! In psychological terms, the end of this game will be important for today's game and I believe that will favor a low scoring game! Memphis began the Game 1 red hot, something really important for them, as they aren't a good jump shooting team and the fact that they were in the zone was very important for their offense. They were leading the game and everything was looking easy! But then, the pressure appeared late in the game and Memphis' offense disappeared. Note that Memphis shot 13-25 FG at the rim and 4-13 FG from 3-9 feet, a clear sign that they couldn't dominate on the inside. ZBO is far from his best and the Clippers has a good frontline to defend them with KMartin and Evans!

The Grizzlies did the damage from the outside, something unlikely for them. At a time, they were 9-11 from 3pts, having ended the game with 11-16 3pts! Today the environment will be heavy for them, a lot of pressure and the players will be with heavy mind, so it won't be easy for the Grizzlies to have a good shooting game from the outside today!

On the other hand, the Clippers had a strange game. Their 1st half was a mess, with CP3 and Blake having 2PF each, with a combined of 1-7 FG and 3pts! The fact they were behind in the game the whole game forced them to raise the pace of the game and incredibly, their 2nd unit was excellent. Evans, Young and Bledsoe had +20pts on +/- team points! The Clippers shot 9-11 FG on transition, something weird having in account that Memphis is an excellent transition defensive team! Today with CP3 and Blake having regular minutes, I don't believe the Clippers will raise the pace of the game today.

With Butler out, Young should start and so, the Clippers' 2nd unit will be without scoring punch at the same time that I don't believe that Young will have a lot of offensive volume, while playing the same minutes as CP3 and Blake! In fact, I wouldn't be surprised to see K Martin playing some minutes at SF to stop Gay. 

Bottom line: I expect this game to be played at a slow pace, with both teams struggling on offense. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 533/534 Under 185 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic

NBA - 531 Indiana Pacers @ 532 Orlando Magic

Projected line: Indiana by 6 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 531 Indiana Pacers (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 05/02: Utah Jazz @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 529 Utah Jazz @ 530 San Antonio Spurs

Projected line: San Antonio by 17 points

San Antonio won Game 1 by 15 points against Utah, in a game where they couldn't play at their level and they still had no problems in easily defeating Utah. Surely the Jazz will make some adjustments, but we are talking about the rookie coach Corbin against Popovich, so in this war of adjustments, the edge will surely go to San Antonio. Note that in Game 1, Utah used a big lineup with Millsap, Big Al and Favors, with this lineup started the game with a 6-0 run, but since Popovich made the adjustments, the Spurs outscored Utah by 15-7!  

Even through San Antonio shot 47% FG, they didn't play at their level, as they failed too many easy wide open shots. In the middle of the 3rd quarter, the Spurs had just shot 2-11 from 3pts, just to finish 4-6 3pts! I even watched Manu missing an easy dunk! This easiness resulted from the lack of ability from the Jazz frontcourt in making the right rotations, as they are just too slow to stop Parker and Manu! San Antonio had great numbers in P&R's and Spot Ups, as expected. Besides some bad outside shooting, San Antonio also failed on transitions with 4-10 FG and these two factors will easily be upgraded for today, so the Spurs won't have any offensive problem on today's game. Utah won't change in two days what they can't do since Day 1 of this season!

On the other hand, Utah had an expected edge down low, as Big Al shot 8-16 FG, Millsap 8-14 FG and with the Jazz shooting 8-16 FG on Post Up plays! That won't change today and they will surely try to be more aggressive today:

"We have to be as physical as they are, so we can run our offense better," the Jazz’s Gordon Hayward said. "Just a few things like that will open things up a little bit."

Utah did well on transitions with 23 fast break points, one of the weaknesses of San Antonio's defense. Splitter is out and Diaw will starter, a guy who is in my opinion an underrated player. The problem is that Utah's bench is a million times worse than the Spurs' great bench and Devin Harris is not even close to the level of Tony Parker. Therefore, I expect San Antonio to have a huge offensive game today and have another blowout win today. So, I'll take the Spurs in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 530 San Antonio Spurs (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/01: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 527 Denver Nuggets @ 528 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected line: 205 points / LA Lakers by 2 points

In Game 1, it happened to Denver what happened to Indiana in their 1st game against Orlando. They showed all their inexperience and they couldn't execute well their gameplan and when they started to try to play closer to their level, they were already down by 14-27 after the 1st quarter! Note that in the following three quarters, Lakers outscored Denver, but just by 76-73! This series puts two very different styles head to head and Denver simply couldn't put their game into play:

“We weren’t ready to play,” Denver’s Corey Brewer said of his team. “Tonight we got to come out aggressive and jump on them early.”

“The most-important thing is – we need to start playing our way and not their way,” Nuggets coach George Karl said today, as his team prepares for tonight’s Game 2 at Staples Center, where Denver will try to split the series. “Our way is more pace and penetration and making better shot-selection decisions. Defensively, we did some good things, but we just allowed too many easy baskets and paint points. We usually win the paint war. We didn’t win the paint war. We need to put the loss in the rear-view mirror and look forward to tonight.”

"We talked about bouncing back, about coming out more aggressive," Lawson said Monday before practice. "I think we're both on the same page. ... I was being tentative, wasn't attacking and that hasn't been my game. ... And Arron, he can't wait to step on the court. He wishes the game was right now. He's a battler. He's going to come back stronger."

Denver couldn't push the pace like they wished in Game 1. They had just 5-8 FG in transitions, while the Lakers shot 7-8 FG in transition! They simply weren't aggressive enough! Denver's offense had as their gameplan to score points in the paint and manage to shoot close to basket with ease: they had 39 FGA at the rim and 15 FGA from 3-9 feet! The problem was their lack of efficiency and how they shot: 19-39 FG at the rim and 2-15 FG from 3-9 feet! Denver was basically just using ISO plays to attack the basket and that was easily stopped by the Lakers frontcourt, especially Bynum. Note that Denver had 22 ISO plays (20% volume) against the 11 ISO plays from the Lakers, when their season average is close to 10% volume! For today, I expect Denver to attack the basket once again but in a different way, with better spacing and especially with their guards passing the ball more, something that both Lawson and Affalo couldn't do in Game 1!

On the other hand, the Lakers offense did very well overall. They took advantage of their size edge to pound down low by shooting 20-25 FG at the rim and 10-15 FG from 3-9 feet and this edge will always exist during this series. However, I don't believe some of their role players will shoot so well today like they did in Game 1, like Ebanks with 5-6 FG or Blake 3-6 3pts. But also 11-15 FT won't happen again, as Denver's defense will be more aggressive today, they will try to create more turnovers and they won't make things so easy to the Lakers' frontcourt today: they will foul them!

I expect a faster game today, with more fouls, more fast break points for Denver, with the Nuggets being much more competitive today. I believe in a complete ballgame today, in a game full of offense and therefore, I'll take both Denver and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527/528 Over 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527 Denver Nuggets (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker