NBA Premium Play 05/01: Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers

NBA - 527 Denver Nuggets @ 528 Los Angeles Lakers

Projected line: 205 points / LA Lakers by 2 points

In Game 1, it happened to Denver what happened to Indiana in their 1st game against Orlando. They showed all their inexperience and they couldn't execute well their gameplan and when they started to try to play closer to their level, they were already down by 14-27 after the 1st quarter! Note that in the following three quarters, Lakers outscored Denver, but just by 76-73! This series puts two very different styles head to head and Denver simply couldn't put their game into play:

“We weren’t ready to play,” Denver’s Corey Brewer said of his team. “Tonight we got to come out aggressive and jump on them early.”

“The most-important thing is – we need to start playing our way and not their way,” Nuggets coach George Karl said today, as his team prepares for tonight’s Game 2 at Staples Center, where Denver will try to split the series. “Our way is more pace and penetration and making better shot-selection decisions. Defensively, we did some good things, but we just allowed too many easy baskets and paint points. We usually win the paint war. We didn’t win the paint war. We need to put the loss in the rear-view mirror and look forward to tonight.”

"We talked about bouncing back, about coming out more aggressive," Lawson said Monday before practice. "I think we're both on the same page. ... I was being tentative, wasn't attacking and that hasn't been my game. ... And Arron, he can't wait to step on the court. He wishes the game was right now. He's a battler. He's going to come back stronger."

Denver couldn't push the pace like they wished in Game 1. They had just 5-8 FG in transitions, while the Lakers shot 7-8 FG in transition! They simply weren't aggressive enough! Denver's offense had as their gameplan to score points in the paint and manage to shoot close to basket with ease: they had 39 FGA at the rim and 15 FGA from 3-9 feet! The problem was their lack of efficiency and how they shot: 19-39 FG at the rim and 2-15 FG from 3-9 feet! Denver was basically just using ISO plays to attack the basket and that was easily stopped by the Lakers frontcourt, especially Bynum. Note that Denver had 22 ISO plays (20% volume) against the 11 ISO plays from the Lakers, when their season average is close to 10% volume! For today, I expect Denver to attack the basket once again but in a different way, with better spacing and especially with their guards passing the ball more, something that both Lawson and Affalo couldn't do in Game 1!

On the other hand, the Lakers offense did very well overall. They took advantage of their size edge to pound down low by shooting 20-25 FG at the rim and 10-15 FG from 3-9 feet and this edge will always exist during this series. However, I don't believe some of their role players will shoot so well today like they did in Game 1, like Ebanks with 5-6 FG or Blake 3-6 3pts. But also 11-15 FT won't happen again, as Denver's defense will be more aggressive today, they will try to create more turnovers and they won't make things so easy to the Lakers' frontcourt today: they will foul them!

I expect a faster game today, with more fouls, more fast break points for Denver, with the Nuggets being much more competitive today. I believe in a complete ballgame today, in a game full of offense and therefore, I'll take both Denver and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527/528 Over 201,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 527 Denver Nuggets (+5,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/01: Philadelphia 76ers @ Chicago Bulls

NBA - 525 Chicago Bulls @ 526 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected line: 172 points

In Game 1, Philadelphia showed that they will have a lot of problems in scoring in half court against Chicago, with or without Rose. They had an offensive rate of 99, something I expected, but what I wasn't expecting was they to shoot 24-31 FT! The Sixers shot 39% FG and Chicago's frontcourt simply didn't allow the Sixers to score easy points near the basket, as they shot 16-30 FG and 1-5 FG from 3-9 feet. In the 1st half, Philadelphia scored 42 points with 6 FT, while in the second half they scored 49 points with 24 FT! The only reason why Philadelphia had some success on offense was due to their transitions, as Chicago committed 18 turnovers, with Rose committing 5, that Philadelphia took advantage to score 19 points off them!

With Rose's absence, the series won't change very much in terms of its style. In fact, I believe Philadelphia will struggle on offense even more, as without Rose, Chicago has the tendency to play at a slower pace and to be more conservative and less prone to commit turnovers, with Philadelphia having less chances to score in transition. In the three games in the regular season between these two teams, the pace of the games were 87.1, 89.5 and 85.5! Obviously that game where Rose didn't play had the slowest pace out of the three games. The pace of Game 1 was 92.3, way too high for this kind of series and today, I expect a slower pace without Rose.

In the matchup between Chicago's offense and Philadelphia's defense, it was scary how huge the edge in favor of the Bulls was. Coach Collins inserted Meeks defending Rip and that didn't work at all, with that being the reason why Meeks played just 11 minutes and it looks like it won't be a starter in today's game. Philadelphia wasn't expecting Rose to be so explosive and they just couldn't focus on anything, with that being the reason why five players from the Bulls scored double digits points and the team dished a total of 28 assists! Chicago was excellent on cuts and offscreens with 5-6 FG and 7-11 FG, as their perimeter offense was extremely aggressive. The problem is that Rose is now gone and Watson/Lucas lack the same power, as they are more P&R's players and Philadelphia is a Top 3 defensive team on this kind of play. Therefore, I expect Chicago to struggle on offense for the rest of the series as well.

Looking at all of this, I believe coach Thibs will try to lower the pace and try to win the series through their edge in the frontcourt plus with their defense and with their rebound edge. I expect a low scoring game for this game and so, I'll take the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 525/526 Under 176 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 05/01: Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks

NBA - 523 Boston Celtics @ 524 Atlanta Hawks

Projected line: 169 points

With Rondo out, I expect things to be really tough for Boston, as Rondo scored 20 points and had 11 assists in Game 1, while accounting for 57% of the team's offense. Boston was a jump shooting team and without Rondo, they lose a lot of creativity. On the other hand, Atlanta was what I expected: a jump shooting team with no interior game whatsoever and that's why they took 47 jump shots on Sunday. I expect Boston to slow down the pace today and try to use their great defense, while Atlanta will once again be a perimeter team, who will struggle against Boston's top defense. Therefore, I expect another low scoring game on this series and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 523/524 Under 173 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/30: Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

NBA - 521 Dallas Mavericks @ 522 Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected line: 190 points

Dallas did a good job in preventing the Thunder to go to the free throw line – only 17-20 vs. 20-25 from the Mavs but they failed miserably in defending near the basket. The Thunder shot 18-25 FG at the rim with Ibaka shooting 7-7 FG! The idea was to force the Thunder to be a perimeter based team in a typical half court game (Dallas used some zone defense as well) and Oklahoma City shot 6-21 FG from 16-23feet and 6-16 3pts so Dallas had some success in that regard.

The problem was that the Mavericks committed 15 turnovers that culminated in 22 points off turnovers for OKC and OKC had a remarkable mark of 10-14FG in transition plays so all the good work that Dallas did in the defensive end in the halfcourt was erased by their inability to defend in transition. Obviously the key for tonight is to not commit turnovers and I expect Dallas to be more focused in this department. 

On the other side, Oklahoma City did a good job in defending Dirk Nowitzki. Unlike last season, the Thunder didn’t want to allow Dirk to have a field day from the outside and dared him to attack the rim where Ibaka and Perkins are more effective. Dallas shot only 12-28FG at the rim so we can expect the Thunder to have the same approach tonight. Despite their interior struggles, Dallas was able to hit 10-22 behind the line and if these shots don’t hit in a similar rate tonight, I expect Dallas to have some offensive regression as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Under 193.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 04/30: Orlando Magic @ Indiana Pacers

NBA - 519 Orlando Magic @ 520 Indiana Pacers

Projected line: Indiana by 15 points

In game 1, the Pacers couldn’t handle the pressure of being the clear favorites against a Howard-less Magic team and they lost the game without scoring a single point in the last 4 minutes of the game. They were nervous and once the Magic turn the game into a ball game, the Pacers lost their composure.

Their players passed the ball several times even thought they were wide open and I don’t think coach Vogel did a good job in terms of game plan and execution. They had a considerable edge in 3 of the 4 factors: less turnovers, more free throws and more rebounds but their shooting performance was horrible and the fact that they shot 13-22 from the line didn’t help them either. 

Their size edge is considerable in this series and they were so focused in exploring them that their offense lost their usual “flow”! The Pacers shot 5-16 FG in post up plays and/or shot 11-28FG at the rim – 39% is a terrible mark no matter what your opponent is and with the Magic having Davis and Anderson as their big players it was even more tragic for them. For tonight I expect them to be more patient and not force their offense into post up plays in almost every set play! The Pacers will have once again more free throws than the Magic so a more fluid ball movement and they will be fine tonight.

On the defensive end, the lack of size of the Magic was pretty evident! Roy Hibbert had 9 blocks and the Magic attempted only 18 shots at the rim (10-18FG)! Orlando was (and will be) a perimeter jump shooting team that relies on the pick and roll. Almost 35% of their plays were pick and rolls’ with a not so good 11-31 FG shooting performance on those plays and also 26% of their plays were spot up plays so Orlando showed a pretty predictable offense in game 1. 

Because the Pacers’ big players are extremely quick footed, the Pacers can easily control them in the next games like they did in game 1. I have the Pacers as 15 points favorites for a blowout win tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on  520 Indiana Pacers (-9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Free Premium Card 04/30

MLB - 965 Texas Rangers @ 966 Toronto Blue Jays

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Darvish vs K. Drabek)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 966 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ K. Drabek) @ +124 / 2.24 on Bookmaker



MLB - 967 Kansas City Royals @ 968 Detroit Tigers

(Starting Pitchers: L. Hochevar vs D. Below)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 968 Detroit Tigers ML (w/ D. Below) @ -145 / 1.69 on Betonline



MLB - 969 Oakland Athletics @ 970 Boston Red Sox

(Starting Pitchers: T. Milone vs C. Buchholz)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 969 Oakland Athletics ML (w/ T. Milone) @ +137 / 2.37 on 5 Dimes



MLB - 971 Seattle Mariners @ 972 Tampa Bay Rays

(Starting Pitchers: F. Hernandez vs J. Hellickson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 972 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ J. Hellickson) @ -136 / 1.73 on 5 Dimes



MLB - 973 Minnesota Twins @ 974 LA Angels

(Starting Pitchers: N. Blackburn vs CJ. Wilson)

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 974 LA Angels RL-1.5 (w/ CJ. Wilson) @ -191 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Play 04/29: Los Angeles Clippers @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 515 Los Angeles Clippers @ 516 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected line: 179 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515/516 Under 184 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker