NBA 2011-12 Season Goals

This is a message about my goals and objectives for the upcoming NBA season. First of all, here's a recap of my regular season numbers over the years. There's a link at the end of this message to download a play-by-play sheet of every single season.

Total 1-2-3 USA:			Total 3-4-5 EUR:			Total 3-4-5 USA:
06-07	29.65		06-07	91.41		06-07	94.62
07-08	51.74		07-08	82.99		07-08	91.47
08-09	9.99		08-09	50.35		08-09	36.37
09-10	34.38		09-10	74.02		09-10	74.36
10-11	11.16		10-11	44.6		10-11	46.55
TOTAL	136.92		TOTAL	343.37		TOTAL	343.37

Now I'll make a breakdown about the previous season. 

Splits	W	L	Per
Sides	290	251	53.6%
Over	105	115	47.7%
Under	111	86	56.3%

I've always felt more comfortable in picking unders than overs and it looks like my model agrees with that. I couldn't get a profit on my over plays and this was unacceptable for a sample of more than 200 plays. For this season, I'll have to adjust the minimum edge required for us to have an over play. This won't mean that we'll have less over plays than last season because we can have more value with overs this season, but in similar conditions from the past season, we are likely to have less over plays.

I've also made a breakdown of the plays in line segments: 

Spread Favorites Breakdown
Range	W	L	Per
0 / -3	48	40	54.5%
-3.5 / -6	49	48	50.5%
-6.5 / -9.5	55	41	57.3%
-10 / -14.5	25	23	52.1%
-15 / +	3	3	50.0%
Total	180	155	53.7%
Spread Underdogs Breakdown
Range	W	L	Per
0.5 / +3	33	13	71.7%
+3.5 / +6	28	30	48.3%
+6.5 / +9.5	28	26	51.9%
+10 / +14.5	4	6	40.0%
+15 / +	1	0	100.0%
ML's	16	21	43.2%
Total	110	96	53.4%

Unders Breakdown
Range	W	L	Per
0 / 180	3	1	75.0%
180.5 / 190	34	26	56.7%
190.5 / 200	41	41	50.0%
200.5 / 210	26	16	61.9%
210.5 / 220	7	2	77.8%
220.5 / +	0	0
Total	111	86	56.3%
Overs Breakdown
Range	W	L	Per
0 / 180	1	1	50.0%
180.5 / 190	11	9	55.0%
190.5 / 200	42	38	52.5%
200.5 / 210	40	46	46.5%
210.5 / 220	10	20	33.3%
220.5 / +	1	1	50.0%
Total	105	115	47.7%

And also in days of the week:

Weekdays	W	L	Per%
Sunday	76	52	59.4%
Monday	72	55	56.7%
Tuesday	62	55	53.0%
Wednesday	101	116	46.5%
Thursday	22	17	56.4%
Friday	102	91	52.8%
Saturday	71	66	51.8%

My worst day was clearly the Wednesdays, which was the day with more plays, something that is quite normal considering it's the day of week with more games played (together with Fridays).I couldn't even hit 50% of Wednesdays, with this day of the week being a disaster in January, with a 11-30 record on Wednesdays during this specific month.

I created a month breakdown as well:

Months	W	L	Per
November	79	79	50.0%
December	97	67	59.1%
January	87	107	44.8%
February	76	70	52.1%
March	123	89	58.0%
April	44	40	52.4%

The month of January was my black month, especially in the final two weeks of this month, where I had a 36-60 run. It's hard to say why I had such a bad run or what I could do to prevent that to happen again. What I've decided is to tighten up the edges when I am in a losing streak until the proper adjustments have been made. This is all subjective stuff, I would like to avoid losing streaks to happen but we all know that predicting the future is something we can't do. 

Finally, I've also release my plays on a team-by-team breakdown, both for sides and totals:

Sides Teams Breakdown				Totals Teams Breakdown
Name	W	L	Per	Name	W	L	Per
Atlanta	30	16	65.2%	Atlanta	18	16	52.9%
Boston	18	17	51.4%	Boston	16	11	59.3%
Charlotte	18	22	45.0%	Charlotte	17	11	60.7%
Chicago	20	17	54.1%	Chicago	16	15	51.6%
Cleveland	12	11	52.2%	Cleveland	15	15	50.0%
Dallas	19	23	45.2%	Dallas	12	14	46.2%
Denver	21	13	61.8%	Denver	9	13	40.9%
Detroit	14	16	46.7%	Detroit	13	14	48.1%
Golden State	23	15	60.5%	Golden State	10	10	50.0%
Houston	17	17	50.0%	Houston	9	11	45.0%
Indiana	22	14	61.1%	Indiana	12	19	38.7%
LA Clippers	17	23	42.5%	LA Clippers	11	15	42.3%
LA Lakers	15	10	60.0%	LA Lakers	19	12	61.3%
Memphis	27	19	58.7%	Memphis	18	19	48.6%
Miami	20	13	60.6%	Miami	15	18	45.5%
Milwaukee	21	16	56.8%	Milwaukee	12	12	50.0%
Minnesota	18	15	54.5%	Minnesota	9	10	47.4%
New Jersey	15	18	45.5%	New Jersey	9	10	47.4%
New Orleans	20	19	51.3%	New Orleans	20	12	62.5%
New York	19	15	55.9%	New York	11	16	40.7%
Oklahoma City	17	21	44.7%	Oklahoma City	13	14	48.1%
Orlando	24	14	63.2%	Orlando	21	10	67.7%
Philadelphia	20	18	52.6%	Philadelphia	15	13	53.6%
Phoenix	20	16	55.6%	Phoenix	12	9	57.1%
Portland	20	15	57.1%	Portland	11	18	37.9%
Sacramento	20	19	51.3%	Sacramento	23	12	65.7%
San Antonio	25	13	65.8%	San Antonio	18	14	56.3%
Toronto	14	18	43.8%	Toronto	18	17	51.4%
Utah	18	20	47.4%	Utah	13	12	52.0%
Washington	16	18	47.1%	Washington	19	10	65.5%

About the upcoming season: I've worked the whole summer to improve my model for this year's NBA season and to add more elements of analysis to the teams. I have now the data of the last 3 seasons in shot locations for every team in every game played. I have also worked to develop a power ranking that is divided in three different categories: scoring, possession and net assists. This power ranking will give a clear picture in what terms are stronger or weaker. 

This season will be a different season from the usual, with a short schedule, so the work will be more than usual. However, I hope and expect that this season will bring a lot of profit to us. I've been working very hard on the NBA since the last season ended and I'll continue working very hard during the season and I am confident that I will have my best NBA season ever this year. 

I wish you all a great NBA season and if you have any question or just want to give me some feedback, feel free to e-mail me.

To download the excel file with all my plays from the past 5 seasons, Click HERE and click on the feature "download original"

Best regards,

André Gomes

Boston Celtics NBA Season Preview 2011-12

BOSTON CELTICS

Advanced Stats:

PACE: #24 92.3
OFFENSE: #17 104.0
DEFENSE: #2 97.8


After sweeping the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs, Boston couldn’t be competitive in the following round against Miami and clearly lost the series by 4-1. Rondo’s injury was indeed a big factor, however the truth was that Miami looked to be the better team during the whole series. Some people might say that with Perkins, things would be different and that Boston would be able to beat Miami, however I highly doubt that, as Boston with or without Perkins was always an elite defensive team:

Boston’s defensive efficiency rank during the Big Three Era:

07-08 rank #1 96.2
08-09 rank #2 99.4
09-10 rank #5 101.1
10-11 rank #2 97.8

Boston was the second best defensive team in the league during the regular season with Perkins playing just 12 games as a Celtic. Boston was also the second best team in FG% allowed with just 43.2% FG. They were also the third best team in defending at the rim by allowing just 60.5% of those shots. All of this when Perkins played just 12 games for the team! Bottom line: Perkins wasn’t that important to the defense as he was supposed to be.

The weirdest part of Boston’s season was in fact their offensive problems and nobody can convince me that it was due to Perkins absence, as he was always a nullity in the offensive end.

However, the truth is that until the all-star break, Boston was averaging 97.89 points per game, but in the 2nd half of the season, they averaged just 93.15 ppg – the 4th worst mark in the whole league! This lack of offense was clearly noted in the pivotal game 5 in the series against Miami, where Boston scored just 14 points in the 4th quarter while being outscored by 12 points during the quarter. In fact, during the series, Miami outscored the Celtics 29-13 in the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime with a score differential of five points or less! This late collapse wasn’t a first for Boston, as in the previous seasons Boston had also started the season very well just to fade late on the season. This is not a surprise, as this team is really old! There is clearly a trend in the following numbers:

08-09: 44-11 before All-Star / 18-9 after
09-10: 32-18 before All-Star / 18-14 after
10-11: 40-14 before All-star / 16-12 after

So, does the Big Three still have legs for another championship run? Ray Allen had arguably his best season as a Celtic last season by shooting career highs of 49.1% FG and 44.4% 3PTS, while playing 36.1 minutes per game! As weird as it may sound, Pierce also enjoyed a good shooting season with 49.7% FG. Garnett also had his solid numbers of 14.9 ppg, while shooting 52.8% FG and grabbing 8.9 boards per game. So why did the Celtics suffer such a severe drop off on their offense with the Big Three performing in a high level?

The answer is really obvious: the other guys failed to step it up! Note that Delonte West, Marquis Daniels and both O’Neals had problematic seasons, all with innumerous injuries. The Celtics bench contributed with just 26.7 ppg – the 5th worst mark in the league! Glen Davis was probably the most disappointing player of the bunch. He had career highs in minutes (29.3 mpg) and in FG attempts (10.3 FGA per game), but shooting just 44.8% FG is a really low mark for a frontcourt player like him.

About the Perkins trade, we can consider it a disaster. Not because Perkins was such a key piece in the Celtics defense because the numbers show that the Celtics are still an elite defensive team without him, but because the Jeff Green experiment was clearly a failure. His individual numbers weren’t bad – 9.8 ppg with 48.5% FG while logging 23.5 mpg – however, the team didn’t have the right chemistry when he was on the floor.

Right now, Boston doesn’t have a Big Three anymore. They have a Big Four now. Rondo was an All-Star player again, while being the 2nd best player in assists in the league with 11.2 apg. It really looked like Rondo didn’t want to shoot the whole season. He attempted just 1.9 free throws per game, while shooting a ridiculous 56.8% from the FT line. In order to help the team even more, Rondo needs to be much more aggressive on the floor and more importantly to be more confident on his shooting ability.

The Celtics are amongst the old teams where there are doubts if their window to win a championship is now closed or not. However, a short season might be favorable to them, however those back-to-back-to-back games will hurt the old guys. But as they play in such a low pace and should remain being an elite defensive team, they will be competitive even in those games! So, we can’t discard them to be a force once again this season.

NCAAB Premium Card 12/12

NCAAB - 741 Fordham @ 742 Siena

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

PROJECTED LINE: 120 points

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 741/742 Under 127.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

Indiana Pacers NBA Season Preview 2011-12

INDIANA PACERS

Advanced Stats:

PACE #5 97.4          

OFF #22 101.9

DEF #12 103.4

The Pacers were the only losing record team that was still able to reach the playoffs last season. They were only able to achieve that because midway in the season they changed their head coach, with former assistant coach John Vogel becoming the team’s head coach. After this change, the team’s results improved significantly, as the Pacers had a 17-27 record with O’Brien as a coach, but after Vogel took charge of the team, Indiana had a positive record of 20-18. However, as we are going to see a bit later in this preview, statically there weren’t a lot of differences between the O’Brien era and the Vogel era…

Over the last few years, the Pacers were known for being a fast paced team with a good offense, but with an atrocious defense. However, last season were still a fast paced team, but this time they managed to play good defense! They were 12^th in the league in defensive efficiency and it was really tough to score against them near the basket, as they were 7^th in the league in points in the paint allowed with 38.8 ppg and the 4^th best defense at the rim by allowing just 61.2% FG. They couldn’t be so effective in defending the perimeter, but we are talking about a top 10 defensive team.

This fact should have been enough for the Pacers to be competitive on a weak Central division, but the truth is that Indiana struggled like every other team in that division not named Chicago.

The problem of the Pacers was really once again their static offense. Last season, the Pacers had already been the 5^th less efficient offensive team in the league. For a team who plays almost at a run-and-gun kind of pace, being just 17^th ranked in fast break points with 13.9ppg is quite poor. The Pacers was also just 24^th in points in the paint by averaging 38.4ppg. Their incapacity of creating easy points combined with the mark of 48.56 eFG% during the regular season made the Pacers look like a mediocre offensive team. Did that change since Vogel took over the team? Not really. Indiana continued to shoot poorly and commit a lot of turnovers. The only difference in a positive way was that the Pacers were much more aggressive on the offensive end.

They started searching for the offensive board and they attacked the basket to get to the free throw line. Indiana averaged 17.1 points from the free throw line and 12.7 second chance points during the O’Brien era. They upped those numbers into 22.1 points from the free throw line and 14.6 second chance points under Vogel.

With Vogel as head coach, Indiana won 7 of their first 8 games, but then the struggles appeared again and the team continued to be way too inconsistent. To illustrate that, I only need to show the result of one game: a 75-101 loss against the Wolves, where they shot 29.6% from the field, 4-23 3PTS while having 7 assists and 18 turnovers!!!

Already in the playoffs, the Pacers were a tough opponent for the first seed Chicago Bulls. The reasons were the same I’ve already talked about. Indiana was an underrated defensive team that is hard to score near the basket and the Bulls didn’t have a good interior presence – remember Boozer’s struggles in this series? Also in this series, Indiana went to the line and battled with Chicago for the boards. Somehow, the Pacers are a poor version of the Bulls and so, they offered a tough challenge to Chicago.

For this season, Vogel will be the full time head coach and the Pacers will be bringing their main core of players from last season. We can expect Indiana to be a fast paced team again with a good defense. The challenge will be to improve offensively.

Darren Collison will now be in the year two in the Pacers organization. Last season he had identical numbers from those in his rookie year in New Orleans. His court vision wasn’t the best for a PG and in several times he wasn’t on the floor during the crunch time. He was one of the biggest reasons for the Pacers lack of a good ball movement. The good news is that Collison is a young player and he will likely improve his deficiencies.

Danny Granger proved last season that he isn’t an elite player what we all expected him to be. Last season was the 4^th season in a row where he couldn’t shoot above 45%. Note that I’m not talking about a SF shooting near the 50% FG mark, I’m talking about the 45% mark and Granger couldn’t even reach this level over the past four seasons! He may score above 20 points per game, but he is hurting the team because those numbers are reached for him being a high volume shooter and not for his shooting efficiency.

Indiana struggled from the perimeter and to solve these problems, they traded to get OJ Mayo from Memphis. Mayo becomes immediately the best pure shooter in the Pacers roster. He is coming from a poor season where he shot just 40.7% FG and was replaced in the lineup by Tony Allen. However, Mayo wasn’t clearly a fit in the Hollins system, but he can be a valuable piece in Indiana.NOTE: This trade was canceled later!

The pivotal area that the Pacers had to figure out during the offseason was the frontcourt. Roy Hibbert and Tyler Hansbrough are hard working players that add hustle in every play and it’s surely tough to score against them. However, they didn’t bring anything special to the team offensively. Hibbert is still a center that shot 46.1% from the field last season and Hansbrough’s lack of size prevents him from being a dangerous offensive player. To address this problem, Indiana signed David West on a 2-years contract.  West is coming from a season ending knee injury, so his health may be a concern in the future and that was most likely the main reason why Indiana only offered him a 2-years contract. Nevertheless, a healthy West is a solid player who will get the team 20 points per game while shooting close to the 50% FG mark. His solid mid-range game will open up the floor the Pacers as well. We must also not forget that Collison played with him in New Orleans during his rookie season, so we can expect some nice early chemistry between the two players.

With the same level of defense that the Pacers played in the last two seasons, Indiana will surely be a competitive team with an improved offense. In my opinion, a healthy David West will be the X factor for a potential offensive improvement or not. The East is getting stronger this year, so if the Pacers keep the same level from last year, they won’t be able to fight for a playoff spot this season.

Minnesota Timberwolves NBA Season Preview 2011-12

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

PACE: #1 99.5         

OFFENSE: #24 101.1         

DEFENSE: #27 108.3

Kurt Rambis is no longer the Minnesota Timberwolves head coach and just because of that the Wolves will be a more competitive team than they were in the recent past.

The word “competitive” is actually unrealistic to describe how the Wolves have been over the last few years. Make no mistake. The Wolves were already a bad franchise before Rambis began coaching them, but with him in Minnesota, the Wolves won 27 games while lost 102 – a dreadful 20.9% winning percentage!

What did Rambis do wrong after all? Well, Rambis tried to bring “the showtime” to Minnesota, while implementing a triangle offense to a completely inappropriate Wolves roster. Minnesota was the quickest team in the league, but this didn’t translate into them being an efficient offensive team. For a triangle offense to work, the big players must be able to handle the ball, but the Wolves as a team were the 2^nd worst team in the league in TO/rate with 15.06%. They also couldn’t shoot the ball well, as they ranked just 24^th in eFG% with 48.25% and 27^th in field goal percentage.

The only thing that the Wolves did well was rebounding. Led by the league’s best rebounder Kevin Love, the Wolves were the second best offensive rebounding of the league by grabbing 29.46% of their misses. However, note that they were so bad in shooting the ball that they had multiple chances to grab the offensive board – we are talking about the 5^th worst team in the league in scoring at the rim% with just 60.8%.

On the defensive end, the Wolves were dreadful as well – 4^th worst team in defensive efficiency, as they couldn’t stop anybody: #4 worst in eFG% allowed w/51.43%; #4 worst in 3pts% allowed w/37.4% and #6 worst in sending the opponent to the free throw line w/32.3% FT/rate.

Now enters Rick Adelman era…

Adelman is one of the best coaches of the game and it was quite surprising for me that he ended up in Minnesota rather than other more “appellative” teams. In my opinion, Adelman did a terrific job in Houston! The Rockets was always a competitive team despite the injuries of Tracy McGrady and Yao Ming and even last season, without a true superstar player, the Rockets were the 6^th most efficient offensive team in the league! His teams can also defend as well as in his 19 full seasons, he's had a top-10 offensive team nine times and a top-10 defensive team nine times as well! Curiously, the Wolves would have now the proper players to run fast, so they will likely be one of the fastest teams in the league in this season as well because Adelman is a smart coach.

Ricky Rubio will be the 67th Wolves’ Point Guard in the David Kahn era… all of them who have watched the Wolves draft picks in Kahn’s management will understand this joke. I’ve watched Rubio’s playing several times for his National Team and he is a really good player. He can play defense, but more importantly he has a terrific court vision and a high IQ, he is smart and fast in taking the best decisions. The problem is that he isn’t a shooter and struggles to finish at the rim. Do not overestimate his Euroleague stats because playing for Barcelona is completely different from playing in a fast tracking league like the NBA. Nevertheless, the Wolves have now a Point Guard that really knows how to play Point Guard and excels on the open floor.

I have no doubts that the Wolves will be a fast paced team because they have plenty of athletic young players: Wesley Johnson, Michael Beasley, Derrick Williams and even Kevin Love. If somehow the Wolves find their right chemistry, this will be a fun team to watch!

Kevin Love is now the face of the franchise and he is coming from a historic season. His 31 points and 31 rebounds against the Knicks are unforgettable, but he has to assume the role of being the leader of a young roster. Love isn’t the prototypical rebounder beast that can’t shoot the ball! No, he hit 41.7% behind the arc while attempting almost 3 treys per game! His versatility can open the floor for his teammates inside the post. This bodes well for Derrick Williams who is an aggressive rebounder and finisher in traffic with a soft mid-range jump shot.

Luckily for the team, Darko Milicic will compete with Brad Miller for the center spot and Miller will be extremely important for the Wolves not only because he will put Milicic on the bench, but more importantly because Miller knows Adelman’s system pretty well.

The biggest obstacle for Adelman will be the time!  He won’t have a full training camp and the schedule will be heavy, so the Wolves will have to learn fast! Potentially the Wolves are a team that will struggle early on and will progress as long the season goes. The Wolves could be a surprise on the West and just fall short in the fight for the last seed spot for the playoffs! One thing seems certain: they will have a better winning percentage than last season. 

NCAAB Premium Card 12/11

NCAAB - 853 NC-Greensboro @ 854 Florida State

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

PROJECTED LINE: Florida State -29

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 854 Florida State (-23,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes






NCAAB - 843 Santa Clara @ 844 Washington St.

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

PROJECTED LINE: Washington St. -2

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 843 Santa Clara (+6,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on 5Dimes