MLB Premium Card 03/06

MLB - 907 Milwaukee Brewers @ 908 Florida Marlins

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: R. Wolf vs R. Nolasco)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

908 Florida Marlins

 

 ML (w/ 

 

R. Nolasco

 

) @ -130 / 1.77 on The Greek

MLB - 911 Washington Nationals @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: Y. Maya vs J. Collmenter)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

911 Washington National

 

 ML (w/ 

 

Y. Maya

 

) @ +153 / 2.53 on The Greek

MLB - 917 Texas Rangers @ 918 Cleveland Indians 

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: A. Ogando vs J. Masterson)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

918 Cleveland Indians ML

  (w/ 

 

J. Masterson) @ -102 / 1.98 on Bookmaker

MLB - 919 Toronto Blue Jays @ 920 Baltimore Orioles

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: C. Villanueva vs Z. Britton)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

920 Baltimore Orioles

 

 ML

 

 (w/ 

 

Z. Britton

 

) @ -130 / 1.77 on The Greek

MLB - 921 Oakland Athletics @ 922 Boston Red Sox

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: J. Outman vs C. Buchholz)

Pick: 3 units on 922 Boston Red Sox RL -1.5 (w/ C. Buchholz) @ +100 / 2.00 on The Greek

MLB - 925 Minnesota Twins @ 926 Kansas City Royals

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: C. Pavano vs D. Duffy)

Pick: 3 units on 926 Kansas City Royals ML (w/ D. Duffy) @ -150 / 1.67 on The Greek

WNBA Premium Card 03/06

WNBA - 601 Minnesota Lynx @ 602 LA Sparks

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

Projected Line: pk line

NOTE: first play of the season. In my opinion, Minnesota is the better team in this matchup and more importantly, they are better prepared for tonight's game.

Pick: 3 units on 

 

601 Minnesota Lynx (+3)

 

 @ -110 / 1.91 on The Greek

MLB Premium Card 02/06

MLB - 955 Washington Nationals @ 956 Arizona Diamondbacks

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: J. Zimmermann vs Z. Duke)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

955 Washington Nationals

 

 ML (w/ 

 

J. Zimmermann

 

) @ +111 / 2.11 on The Greek

MLB - 957 Houston Astros @ 958 San Diego Padres

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: B. Norris vs T. Stauffer)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

957/958 Under 6

 

 (w/ 

 

B. Norris & T. Stauffer

 

) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

MLB - 959 Texas Rangers @ 960 Cleveland Indians

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: D. Bush vs C. Carrasco)

Pick: 3 units on 959 Texas Rangers ML (w/ D. Bush) @ +112 / 2.12 on The Greek

MLB - 961 Minnesota Twins @ 962 Kansas City Royals

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: A. Swarzak vs S. O'Sullivan)

Pick: 3 units on 961 Minnesota Twins ML (w/ A. Swarzak) @ +112 / 2.12 on The Greek

NBA Premium Card 02/06

NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Miami Heat

***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***

Projected Lines: Miami by 1 | 192 Points

For game 2, I’m riding again Dallas and the Over as my Single Dime Plays.

Some thoughts about game 1:

The Mavericks did a nice job defensively. They packed the line and forced Miami to beat them from the outside. That’s why the Heat shot only 15-39 FG from 15 or less feet, scored 28 points in the paint and Chris Bosh struggled on the offensive end by shooting 5-18 from the field. They also used some zone defense when Stojakovic and Barea were on the floor. However there were 2 major problems for that:

1) The Heat was able to shot pretty well behind the arc by hitting 11 of their 24 attempts. For several times, the Heat put a shooter on the corner that was wide open;

2) The Heat completely crushed the Mavs on the boards. By my rebounding measures, they had a 59% edge vs. just 41% from the Mavs. With both teams having similar shooting performances, a 16-6 edge on the offensive boards is just too much to overcome.

In my opinion the 1) factor will be compensated from the Heat by a better shooting performance near the basket. Bosh surely won’t have another horrible performance because he really missed some easy shots.

The biggest difference for tonight in my opinion will be the 2) factor. Somehow it reminds me the G1 of the series MIA/CHI when Miami was crushed on the boards by the Bulls. It felt that they weren’t prepared for such aggressiveness and curiously I had the same feeling after watching the first game of the finals.

On the offensive end, the Heat didn’t make any innovation in Game 1. They just played their usual stuff and it was enough to hold the Mavs to 37.3% from the field!

Dallas “shot locs” stats:

At the rim: 8-18 FG
3-9 feet: 4-13 FG
10-15 feet: 2-8 FG
16-23 feet: 2-6 FG
3pts: 9-22 FG    

Surprisingly, the Mavs struggled to score in every area but behind the arc! They looked completely off sync since the start and their bench (a clear advantage in this series) was held to just 4-22 FG! 4-22 FROM THE FIELD!

The biggest reason for such bad performance was the LOW pace of that game (pace factor=83.3).

Tyson Chandler said it all after the game:

“We gave them too many offensive rebounds,” Chandler explained. “Either we were taking the ball out of the net or they were getting another shot attempt. We’ve gotta box out, we’ve gotta limit them to one shot and we’ve gotta run.”

By giving so many “second chance” opportunities to the Heat, the Mavericks couldn’t push the pace and so the game was basically a pure half court contest. 

For tonight, I expect the Mavs to do a better job on the defensive glass and this will ignite their offense. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

MLB Premium Card 01/06

MLB - 911 Florida Marlins @ 912 Arizona Diamondbacks

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: J. Vasquez vs D. Hudson)

split the wager:

Pick: 2 units on 912 Arizona Diamondbacks ML (w/ D. Hudson) @ -164 / 1.61 on The Greek

Pick: 1 unit on 912 Arizona Diamondbacks RL -1.5 (w/ D. Hudson) @ +130 / 2.30 on The Greek

MLB Premium Card 05/31

MLB - 967 Texas Rangers @ 968 Tampa Bay Rays

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: C. Wilson vs A. Cobb)

NOTE: game starts @ 6:40 PM EST

Pick: 3 units on 968 Tampa Bay Rays ML (w/ A. Cobb) @ +115 / 2.15 on Bookmaker

MLB - 957 Pittsburgh Pirates @ 958 New York Mets

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: J. McDonald vs R. Dickey)

Pick: 3 units on 957 Pittsburgh Pirates ML (w/ J. McDonald) @ +100 / 2.00 on The Greek

MLB - 969 Cleveland Indians @ 970 Toronto Blue Jays

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: M. Talbot vs B. Morrow)

Pick: 3 units on 970 Toronto Blue Jays ML (w/ B. Morrow) @ -159 / 1.63 on The Greek

MLB - 973 Chicago White Sox @ 974 Boston Red Sox

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: P. Humber vs A. Aceves)

Pick: 3 units on 

 974 Boston Red Sox

  RL -1.5 (w/ 

 

A. Aceves

 

) @ +115 / 2.15 on The Greek

MLB - 977 New York Yankees @ 978 Oakland Athletics 

***SINGLE DIME PLAY***

(Starting Pitchers: F. Garcia vs B. Anderson)

Pick: 3 units on 

 

978 Oakland Athletics ML

 

 (w/ 

 

B. Anderson) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 31/05

NBA - 701 Dallas Mavericks @ 702 Miami Heat

***SINGLE DIME PLAYS***

Projected Lines: Miami by 1 | 194 Points

Both Dallas and Miami have been spectacular during these playoffs. They clearly defeated their opponents and won several games down the stretch behind the strong play of their superstars. I must confess that I’m somehow a “Dallas fan” but on my opinion I think that the Miami Heat will win this series and consequently the NBA Championship.

Dallas offense vs. Miami Defense:

The Mavericks are the best offensive team so far in the playoffs and their “play” relies on Dirk Nowitzki and from the perimeter. We all remember how “hot” they were behind the arc against the Lakers but not that they struggled against the Thunder in that department! 

The Lakers are/were a slow footed team: their frontcourt is too big and heavy while the backcourt are constituted by a bunch of old and slow footed guys as well. With a nice ball movement, the Mavericks completed exposed the Lakers’ bad and slow defensive rotations. The same thing cannot be said against the Thunder – a young and athletic team! Dallas finished that series by shooting 38-116 3pts – only 33%! In fact, Dallas was just 29 of 93 in the last four games (28%)!

Yes, the Miami Heat is a super athletic team! They are probably the best defensive team in the NBA in rotating and react on the defensive end. We all knew how good they defend Derrick Rose in every possible situation. NOTE: I don’t think that Miami will be able to shut down the Mavericks! Unlike the Bulls, the Mavericks have multiple shooters on their roster so that task will be almost impossible. However if there are any team that can defend “well” the Mavericks well oiled offense, that team certainly is the Heat (and/or the Bulls by the way).

Another important factor will be the impact of Dirk Nowitzki in this series. Again, it is almost impossible to stop Nowitzki, but Nick Collison did a good job against him in the last series and Miami have two similar defenders to throw on him: Joel Anthony and Udonis Haslem.

Dallas defense vs. Miami offense:

Against the Thunder, the Mavericks had a tough task to stop two great perimeter scorers (Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant) and they were successful mainly because the Thunder don’t/didn’t have any real interior threat that could punish the Mavs for their extra attention on the perimeter. 

The problem is that the Miami Heat has Chris Bosh and he is playing really well as of late. The Mavericks can’t adopt the same strategy against the Heat because they will be crushed by Bosh.

Miami struggled against Dallas in the regular season – they were swept by losing both games (I remember that the same thing happened against the Bulls) but those were distant days. Miami offense is much better now… 

The Heat had some rebounding problems against Chicago, which was normal because Chicago is simply the best rebounding team in the league but they handled such handicap quite well with the introduction of Haslem and Mike Miller into the rotation. 

Because the Mavericks aren’t a good rebounding team and because these two players will get major minutes, I expect the Heat to have a crucial edge in this pivotal department.

For this contest we have a totals line of 188 points. Both teams had several days off but rust won’t be an issue for tonight in my opinion. My projected line is 193/195 points so we have some edge with the Over as well.

After saying this, why I’m taking the Mavericks tonight?

Well, I give the edge to the Mavericks in terms of making the right adjustment for the first game of the series. Remember what happened to the Heat in the first game against the Bulls?! They looked completely surprised by the way the Bulls played! On the other side, the Mavericks have won and cover all the "first games" of the series that they were involved!

Then we are dealing with 4.5 points! Both Miami and Dallas are terrific road teams so the home court edge won’t be a tall order in this series! In almost every game, the Heat’ opponent had real chances to win but the Heat pulled away down the stretch…the Mavericks are the “Heat version of the West” so likely this contest will be decided in the last possession and so we have some edge with the underdogs in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Dallas Mavericks (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Over 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker