Sunday, January 6, 2013

NBA Premium Play 01/05: New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic


NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: NY Knicks by 3 points

Orlando has some curious edges on offense against the Knicks, especially on pick and roll ball handler plays. Jameer Nelson is playing very well lately and so, his team has been having interesting numbers on pick and roll ball handler plays as well. The Knicks defense has been regressing very quickly on this area and they are already #23 in the league, as with Raymond Felton out with an injury, Jason Kidd and Pablo Prigioni are being consistently beaten on defense due to their lack of foot speed. This is why their loss against Portland was mostly due to a big game from Damian Lillard. Besides that, the Knicks have been regressing on cuts defense as well, so the Magic will have another important offensive edge for tonight in here.

The Knicks are coming from a big effort against San Antonio, who was on a tough spot. They had a nice defensive game, but I believe things will go back to normal today. On the Knicks offense, with Arron Afflalo defending Carmelo Anthony, the NY player won't have an easy game tonight. Orlando has been a good spot up and 3pts defensive team the whole season and even though they have been fading away a bit lately, their main problem has been in games against powerful frontcourts like Chicago, where Carlos Boozer and Taj Gibson had big games. The Knicks doesn't offer with danger, as they are a jump shooting team and so, Orlando will have an easier task on defensive today. I expect Orlando to make things really close tonight, so I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Orlando Magic (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

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