NBA Premium Play 05/09: New York Knicks @ Miami Heat

NBA - 723 New York Knicks @ 724 Miami Heat

Projected line: Miami by 15 points

*** TOP PLAY***

Indiana closed the series against Orlando yesterday, so besides having the usual desire of closing the series, Miami will also have the sense of urgency of closing the series today in order to be playing, while the Pacers are already resting. Focus is the key for tonight and with Miami focused, the Knicks have no chance. In the two games played in NYC, Miami began both games quite sloppy, with a high number of turnovers and they even couldn't outscore the Knicks in the first quarter: 19-19 and 18-20! They were then able to make some huge runs, but the question in here is to know that Miami didn't play their best basketball since the start of the game, something I expect them to do today. The Knicks are now without Baron Davis and coach Woodson will need to use Bibby, Douglas or even JR Smith as PG, with Melo also playing as PF and all these scenarios aren't favorable to the Knicks.

Amare returned to the lineup in the Game 4 and he was excellent with 8-13 FG 20pts and 10reb, with 6 of those 8 shots being made at the rim. The Knicks used some different P&R looks to give the ball to Amare and that caught Miami in surprise. Besides that, Amare always tried to avoid touching the ball with his left handed and so he was a little vulnerable. Unfortunately for the Knicks, these new plays aren't going to surprise Miami again, as they will study this on tape and the Heat will surely be much more physical against Amare, making him work on his left side. Melo also had a super efficient game, with 15-29 FG and 10-14 FT! I highlight his 9-13 FG at the rim, which adding to Amare, these two players combined 15-22 FG at the rim vs 1-7 FG from the rest of the team! With the adjustments that Miami will make for tonight, the Knicks will struggle at the rim and they will be forced to shoot from the perimeter, where they are just 25-84 3pts for the series - not even 30% 3pts!

On the other side, Miami should easily have a better offensive game than they had in the previous game. I've already mentioned that they entered the last game quite sloppy and we have another note showing that: 0-0 FT on 1Q, while they had 24-35 FT in the remaining three quarters! Wade had just 4-11 FT and Miami shot just 3-19 3pts, with a lot of them being wide open. They weren't as effective as usual on transition with a poor 4-10 FG and on ISO plays, Wade & Lebron struggled by going 2-11 FG! All these bad numbers won't happen again tonight! I'm not saying Miami will drastically improve in all of these numbers, but an upgrade in two of the mentioned factors will boost for their offense for a very easily win. Therefore, I'll take Miami tonight.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 724 Miami Heat (-11) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes