NBA Premium Card 03/24

NBA - 601 Houston Rockets @ 602 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

CHA is coming from a great win vs. POR where their offense simply crushed the Blazers’ biggest weaknesses on the defensive end: they had Al Jefferson crushing the awful POR’s interior defense w/ 13-22 FG for 28 pts (Big Al scored 16 points in the first quarter!) while Kemba Walker torched the awful defense of D. Lillard and finished the game w/ 10-18 FG for 26 pts!

So now imagine that instead of Robin Lopez, Al Jefferson will have to face D. Howard or O. Asik while Kemba Walker, instead of facing D. Lillard, he will have to face P. Beverly, and quickly we can realize that HOU’s defense will be a tough matchup for the Bobcats’ offense tonight.

On the other end, HOU’s offense has been playing great as of late but note that they have faced some poorly defensive teams or matchups… the undersized MIA frontcourt, UTA, MIN or CLE w/ Hawes as their center! CHA’s defense is pretty good protecting the rim and well disciplined on the defensive end, so I also expect CHA’s defense to be decent in here.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 206 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 605 Portland Trail Blazers @ 606 Miami Heat

Play #4

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

I understand that this Under play might be a bit insane given the Heat’s and Blazers’ defensive problems as of late, but I think that the matchup will favor a relatively low scoring game.

I’ve already mentioned POR’s defensive problems vs. CHA in their last game: PG & Center defense was a huge problem vs. Al Jefferson & Kemba Walker, but the good news for them tonight is that MIA simply don’t have any skilled offensive player in that those players (PG & Center). Obviously, MIA’s will have some great offensive ends in other areas but in this particular (biggest problem for POR) area, the Heat won’t torch POR’s defense.

On the other end, LMA is OUT for POR and so, we can expect (as usual) POR to rely on their PNR game w/ Lillard being the primarily offensive force. The bad news for POR is that MIA defense is ranked #1 in defending PNR ball handler plays…. I expect MIA to have some sense of urgency on the defensive end and suddenly, this contest has the right ingredients to go UNDER the total posted.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 605/606 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/24: Phoenix Suns @ Atlanta Hawks

Phoenix  at Atlanta

NBA - 603 Phoenix Suns @ 604 Atlanta Hawks ***FREE Premium Play*** We have in here two similar teams going H2H: both teams want to run and play fast, both teams have undersized frontcourts and both teams have frontcourt players w/ nice shooting range. However, the biggest difference is on the backcourt where PHX w/ Dragic & Bledsoe will have a tremendous edge vs. ATL’s backcourt. ATL played well in the first 3 quarters yesterday @TOR. Their problem @4th quarter was that they simply couldn’t stop TOR’s guards Lowry & DeRozan - Kyle Lowry scored 13 of his game-high 25 points in the fourth quarter & DeMar DeRozan scored 10 of his 21 points in the fourth quarter. Both TOR’s players attacked ATL’s bad PNR & poor rim protection and for tonight, we can expect the same thing from PHX’s top 2 guards. K. Korver is banged up and he is a key piece for ATL’s offense. PHX has superior depth IMO and they are confident after their great comeback win @MIN last night. My fair line for this contest is the Suns being favored by 2 full ball possessions and so, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603 Phoenix Suns (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/24: Indiana Pacers @ Chicago Bulls

Indiana  at Chicago

NBA - 611 Indiana Pacers @ 612 Chicago Bulls ***FREE Premium Play*** These two teams have faced each other this past Friday with the Pacers winning the game 91-79. It was a classic grind out battle between two elite defenses…. It was almost impossible to score near the basket as both teams scored only 32 and 30 points in the paint while there were few transition opportunities for both teams to score. The key reason for the Pacers’ win was the fact that they were incredible efficient @ mid/long range shots (long 2’s) because they also struggled to hit 3pts pointers w/ just 2-11. Obviously, the Pacers aren’t consistent enough to hit those “long 2’s” shots and they were held to just 71 points in the next day by the Grizzlies. However, note that the Pacers despite all those offensive struggles as of late are still defending @ elite level! On the other, the Bulls struggled to score vs. PHI in the last game! I was surprised by the fact that the game was a super slow paced contest – strange if we take in account that it was against the “run and gun” 76ers’ team. For this contest, I expect the game to be another classic half court battle. Both teams are struggling to hit outside shots (Paul George is really struggling as of late) while interior defenses will make things tough for the opp. to score down. My fair line for this contest is 175/176 points and so, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 611/612 Under 179 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 03/24

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 383-320-10 ATS | +120.31 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 383-320-10 ATS | +54.82 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under TOR/ATL 203.5 WIN

Over MIN/PHX 218 WIN

Milwaukee (+8) LOSS

New York Knicks (-10) LOSS

Under DAL/BKN 204.5 LOSS

Brooklyn (+5) WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a subpar 3-3 ATS day in our plays. Once again, we’ve lost an Under play because the game went to OT. My read on DAL vs. BKN’s game was spot on w/ both teams struggling to score but the overtime ruined our chances to have a great day.

Special mention also for the Cavaliers… I had a play w/ the Knicks saying that the Cavs wouldn’t have the proper energy to hang around vs. NYK. They were clearly outplayed in the previous 2 contests vs. OKC & HOU but somehow CLE rallied back in the fourth quarter of both games…amazingly, the same thing happened yesterday! NYK was winning by 15 pts @ half time before allowing 60 points to the Cavs’ @ second half.

That’s the NBA…

Moving on for today, we have a BIG card of 10 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

   

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/23

NBA - 707 Milwaukee Bucks @ 708 Sacramento Kings

Play #3

The Bucks are playing decently as of late and I expect the Bucks to be competitive against the Kings in here.

We all know that the Kings’ don’t a particular fluid offensive but lately it has been brutal to watch them… in L4 games they had 12, 17, 18 and 17 assists! SAC’s coach decision to start Reggie Evans is “good” for the rebounding department but w/ him on the court, basically the Kings are playing 4*5 on offense.

The opposition has been happening w/ the Bucks as they are sharing the ball quite well lately by averaging 24.3 assists per game in L7 games! They are coming from b2b competitive games @POR & @GSW which is a good sign…

B. Knight and Ramon Sessions are playing well especially via PNR’s and attacking the rim and I don’t think the Kings would be able to slow them down today.

My fair line for this contest is the Kings to be favored by 4/5 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ MIL in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Milwaukee Bucks (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 709 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 710 New York Knicks

Play #4

I really don’t think that the shorthanded Cavaliers’ team will be able to be competitive in this particular spot…

CLE will play today their 3rd game in 4 nights with the previous 2 games being vs. OKC & HOU. Last night they were involved in a pure run and gun game vs. HOU and their 2 top available guards Waiters & Jack logged major minutes. Actually, Waiters played 41 and 40 min in L2 games!

Weirdly, the Cavaliers were able to cover the spread in those 2 games despite being completely outplayed for the majority of the time. That happened because the Cavaliers rallied back @garbage 4th quarter time by outscoring OKC 27-17 and last night HOU 32-17.

For today, I don’t think CLE will have the proper “energy” to hang around vs. confident NYK team.

CLE is allowing their opponents to hit 11 treys per game in L7 games…they had their best perimeter defensive player banged up (L. Deng) which is good news for Carmelo Anthony. NYK has won the last H2H game by 10 points @CLE despite a phenomenal game from K. Irving = 30 points, 8 rebounds & 8 assists.

I expect a blowout win from the Knicks today and therefore, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 New York Knicks (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 711 Brooklyn Nets @ 712 Dallas Mavericks

Play #5 & #6

I think we are dealing with two similar teams and I don’t see any substantial difference between them and so, I think that the Mavericks are a bit overrated in this matchup.

Both teams don’t have any particular reliable inside game, so their offense is mostly via outside shots… both teams aren’t good offensive rebounding teams… so the team that will shoot better from outside most likely will win the game.

In this potential scenario, the Nets are shooting w/ extreme efficiency lately w/ 9-21, 9-20 e 9-17 3pts L3 games.  Despite being undersized @frontcourt, the Nets will have a good size edge on the backcourt w/ Deron Williams & Joe Johnson vs. Calderon & Monta Ellis.

Note also that BKN has been great defending 3pts lately by allowing 31.3% from 3pts in L10 games = #3 best mark in the league!

The first H2H game ended w/ the Nets winning by just one point and for this contest I also expect a close battle between these two teams.

I also expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game… this contest won’t be a fast paced one due to BKN’s style of play and w/ few 2nd chance points opportunities & pts in the paint, both teams would have to be shoot lights out from the outside for this contest to go OVER and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Brooklyn Nets (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711/712 Under 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/23: Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Phoenix  at Minnesota

NBA - 703 Phoenix Suns @ 704 Minnesota Timberwolves Play #2 I really expect this contest to be a classic shootout w/ +220 points scored. The Wolves are playing w/ some great offensive flow as of late… Ricky Rubio has been more aggressive on the offensive end w/ success while rookie G. Dieng can run the floor pretty well which is good news for MIN’s great transition game. For this contest, MIN has a favorable matchup vs. PHX’s undersized frontcourt. Kevin Love torched the Suns in the last H2H w/ 10-22 FG, 3-6 3pts & 10-14 FT’s for 33 points and for today, I expect the Wolves to dominate the glass w/ Kevin Love having a great edge on his individual matchup. PHX’s is coming from b2b “good” defensive performances vs. ORL & DET but I really don’t think it was a considerable improvement from them. Note that they have faced a lowly ORL team playing @b2b spot without Nelson and w/ Vucevic being ejected and playing only 9minutes…obviously, the Magic didn’t have any chance in the 2nd half and PHX held them to just 41 pts!  In the last game vs. DET, PHX was completely outrebounded (had just 40% reb/rate) but they benefited from the fact that DET couldn’t hit outside shots (something normal for them) w/ 4-16 3pts and especially, DET was miserable from the line w/ 10-26 FT’s (38.5% mark!!!). On the other side, MIN had tremendous problems to stop opp. guards of attacking them off the dribble and convert @the rim. DAL & DEN combined to score 51 fast break pts & 118 points in the paint against them!! Yep, PHX have Dragic & Bledsoe ready to punish them today… W/ this contest being a run and gun game and with both teams having some considerable edges @offense, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 218 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/23: Atlanta Hawks @ Toronto Raptors

Atlanta  at Toronto

NBA - 701 Atlanta Hawks @ 702 Toronto Raptors Play #1 My fair line for this contest is 200 points so in my opinion, we are dealing with an inflated totals line. TOR is coming from a brutal physical effort vs. OKC this past Friday. After some bad defensive games, the Raptors bounced back and held OKC to just 96 points @regulation. Their problem was Kevin Durant, but really, this a problem for every team in the league. 4 TOR’s starters logged at least 45 minutes w/ banged up Amir Johnson playing an insane 50 minutes! On the end, ATL has lost the last game vs. NO in their worst defensive performance from a while. They couldn’t stop A. Davis (like Durant, the same thing can be said about Davis’ lately). These two teams played vs. each other already in this week and the game ended w/ 212 points @ regulation. Both teams were incredible efficient w/ FT’s: TOR 26-29 FT - 90% mark and ATL 27-31 FT - 87% mark! Kyle Korver played that game but he’s OUT for today, while ATL’s guard Jeff Teague killed the Raptors w/ 11-18 FG & 11-11 FT for 34 points. However, note that Teague took advantage of the Raptors interior defense that was without Jonas Valanciunas who left the game early. Today’s contest is primed to be a relatively low scoring game… we have an early start, TOR coming from a brutal effort and the Hawks without their best pure shooter = Under play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker