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| Miami at Golden State |
| NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Golden State Warriors ***FREE Premium Play*** It was interesting for me to watch MIA control the tempo of the game last night vs. PHX. I was expecting a fast paced contest, as this is usually the style that PHX wants to play especially at home, but the game had “only” pace factor = 89.6! Note that PHX’s pace factor for the season is 94.35 so you can “see” the difference. Their previous game @UTA had pace factor = 81.4 so this is IMO an obvious trend: MIA wants to slow down a bit the tempo of the game, and not enter in “track meats” vs. their opponents. Being this contest a b2b game, there is no reason to think otherwise for tonight… I had MIA-3 last night vs. PHX w/ the X factor being: “OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside. I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! “ Well, GSW is somehow a similar team as PHX as their primary scoring source is on the perimeter and their ball movement is quite subpar – they are averaging just 19.8 assists per game in L5 games! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
Wednesday, February 12, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors
NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers
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| Dallas at Indiana |
| NBA - 703 Dallas Mavericks @ 704 Indiana Pacers ***FREE Premium Play*** Well, DAL interior defense was completely dominated by Al Jefferson last night that destroyed them w/ 14-23 FG 30 pts while CHA as a team scored 60 pts in the paint and went 20-26 FG at the rim… Today won’t be easier for them as IND has a strong frontcourt unit that is coming from a pure domination vs. DEN in the last game: West 11-13 FG + Hibbert 6-12 FG + Scola 4-8 FG and even Mahimni 2-3 FG. Like I’ve said ton of times, IND’s offense is streaky and they are coming from a monster offensive game so they are confident and rested = good sign for some offensive continuity. Obviously, the X factor for this contest is related w/ DAL offense vs. IND defense… DAL was humiliated last night and DAL’s coach “rested” their key players, so we aren’t dealing with a typical “letdown” b2b spot. Having said that, DAL offense is actually a “bad matchup” for IND’s defense… IND’s defense is predicated to “force” their opponents to shoot from mid range and… well, this is what the Mavericks do & w/ some great efficiency: DAL is ranked #5 from 16-23feet + ranked #4 from 10-15feet! Somehow, I think that this matchup is similar to the one IND vs. POR…and POR covered the spread in both games because their offense was able to be efficient vs. IND defense. Despite last night’s awful game, DAL offense has been sharp and I expect them to be decent while IND’s offense will simply dominate down low. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 195.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes |
NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Washington Wizards @ Houston Rockets
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| Washington at Houston |
| NBA - 719 Washington Wizards @ 720 Houston Rockets ***FREE Premium Play*** I expect this contest to be a fast paced one w/ both teams having some good edges on the offensive end as my fair line in here is 208/210 points. WAS is coming from a competitive game @MEM played in “MEM’s” terms – slow paced, grind out game. Note that HOU played twice MEM not a long time ago, and also both games were slow paced affairs as the Grizzlies really control the tempo of the game of their games. The same thing won’t happen tonight as both teams want to push the pace and have aggressive quick-footed guards… WAS defense has been decent as of late, but there is a “bad” pattern for them related w/ their backcourt defense: last night, MEM’s PG N. Calathes went 8-12 FG for 18 pts & 6 assists… SAC’s PG Isaiah Thomas torched them w/ 11-24 FG, 8-8 FT for 30 points… and both CLE’s guards Irving & Waiters combined to score 47 points against WAS. Obviously, there is a clear regression in WAS’s P&R defense and unfortunately for them, they will face one of the best P&R offensive teams in the league in the Rockets, and so, I expect HOU to be efficient offensively. On the other side, I expect WAS to cause some problems to HOU defense as well. HOU’s best defensive guard P. Beverly is banged up (game time decision) and even though HOU is coming from b2b good perimeter defensive performances (6-15 & 6-25 3pts), we just can’t ignore that they have faced MIL & MIN without their best shooter K. Martin, so they enjoyed some favorable matchups in the last games. The first h2h between these two teams ended up w/ HOU winning 114-107 in an ultra fast paced affair w/ 36 total fast break pts scored & 106 points in the paint. I expect a similar type of game tonight and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 719/720 Over 204.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker |
Daily Message 02/12 - NBA 1st Half Game of the Year!
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 308-248-9 ATS | +138.46 units
NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 308-248-9 ATS | +64.48 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-53-5 ATS | +32.60 units
NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-53-5 ATS | +14.00 units
NBA Yesterday recap:
Washington (+4.5) Triple Dime WIN
Dallas (-3.5) LOSS
Sacramento ML LOSS
Atlanta (+1.5) LOSS
Miami (-3) WIN
Daily Message:
Maybe it is because the NBA is almost entering @ vacation time, but the truth is that DAL, SAC & ATL (all road teams last night) simply didn't put any effort on the floor last night. It didn't matter if they had a "better" physical spot than their opponent…they were completely outplayed w/ some bizarre stuff going on:
1) CHA had 42 (!!!) assists against the Mavericks - the best mark in the league this season; 2) I felt that A. Varejao's absence would be the X factor for a SAC victory last night. Such absence gave rookie A. Bennett a chance to play more minutes and… well, 6-9 FG, 3-3 3pts for 19 points & 10 rebounds, WTF?! 3) We were in danger of losing our Triple Dime Play simply because M. Gortat was involved in foul trouble early on the game (he played just 5 minutes in the first half) and obviously, MEM frontcourt dominated the first 24 minutes of the game… with him on the court, WAS outscored the Grizzlies by 5 points!
For today we have a monster card of 13 games to work but I'm going to be extra careful with these potential no-show spots. We won't have a big card for sure… However, there is a game that I really love in tonight's card and that is enough for us to release a Big Play - our NBA First half of Season Game of the Year - Triple Dime Play! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!
NBA Premium Card 02/11
NBA - 505 Atlanta Hawks @ 506 Chicago Bulls
Play #4
I don’t like CHI’s physical spot for this contest as not only they are returning home after a big West Coast road trip but especially because they had only one day off to rest and three of their key players Butler, Gibson & Noah played ton of minutes in the last game @LAL.
In-game fatigue was a real problem in that game @CHI as LAL’s bench was able to outplay CHI’s tired starters, note that C. Kaman completely outplay them w/ 13-23 FG for 27 points in just 28 minutes.
ATL interior defense has been pretty impressive lately if we consider that they are shorthanded by allowing just 57% FG at the rim in L10 games! Against the Bulls, I simply expect them to keep packing the paint as they did against IND & MEM with some success.
On the other side, I think that ATL’s superior ball movement on the perimeter will be the X factor for tonight because both teams will struggle to score down low and ATL w/ their superior outside shooting has better chances to win this contest.
In-game fatigue was a real problem in that game @CHI as LAL’s bench was able to outplay CHI’s tired starters, note that C. Kaman completely outplay them w/ 13-23 FG for 27 points in just 28 minutes.
ATL interior defense has been pretty impressive lately if we consider that they are shorthanded by allowing just 57% FG at the rim in L10 games! Against the Bulls, I simply expect them to keep packing the paint as they did against IND & MEM with some success.
On the other side, I think that ATL’s superior ball movement on the perimeter will be the X factor for tonight because both teams will struggle to score down low and ATL w/ their superior outside shooting has better chances to win this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505 Atlanta Hawks (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
NBA - 509 Miami Heat @ 510 Phoenix Suns
Play #5
OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside.
I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! That’s why MIA beat them so easily in the first h2h game…
MIA is coming from a pathetic performance in their last game @UTA, so there is some sense of urgency for this contest and I don’t expect them to take PHX “lightly” as they are now seen as a really good team.
I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! That’s why MIA beat them so easily in the first h2h game…
MIA is coming from a pathetic performance in their last game @UTA, so there is some sense of urgency for this contest and I don’t expect them to take PHX “lightly” as they are now seen as a really good team.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Miami Heat (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 508 Washington Wizards @ 509 Memphis Grizzlies
Play #2
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
I expect the Wizards to be extremely competitive tonight as they match up pretty well w/ MEM and especially, they will play them @ right time.
I don’t like MEM’s physical spot for this contest as they are coming from two brutal b2b games @ATL & @CLE – both were “grind out games” with the last one went to OT. I don’t know why but MEM’s coach doesn’t trust on their bench (frontcourt) and both Z. Randolph & M. Gasol have played some major minutes in L2 games. This is problematic for M. Gasol because he really looks far from being @100%!
In order to limit MEM’s offense, we need to know if WAS is a good defensive rebounding team & post up defense and here are the numbers:
WAS is ranked #4 in defensive rebounding w/ nice 76.0% and they are ranked #11 in post up defense! Just note that they held D. Cousins to just 3-16 FG in the last game!
It looks like MEM’s backcourt is banged up for tonight…. C. Lee is banged up while T. Allen and especially M. Conley are also banged and most likely will miss tonight’s contest. The absence of Conley has been a huge negative factor for the team because rookie N. Calathes, despite being playing quite well in his place, he is constantly overmatched defensively because he doesn’t have the proper speed to defend vs. quick guards. In the last game @CLE, K. Irving torched him w/ 9-17 FG, 4-4 FT & 6-8 FT for 28 points and 5 assists and for tonight, I expect John Wall to have a similar edge in his individual matchup.
MEM defense has been terrific since Gasol has returned but they tend to struggle vs. teams that can hit shots from the outside - something that this Wizards’ team is very dangerous.
In my opinion, WAS has some key edges vs. MEM in both ends of the floor, and that’s why I’m taking them as my Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 508 Washington Wizards (+4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NBA - 503 Dallas Mavericks @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats
Play #1
DAL offense is playing in an unbelievable high level right now led by Dirk Nowitzki… They are ranked #4 for the season and in L8 games their Off. Rtg. = insane 123.6! DAL’s Pick n Roll game has been superb and I really think that they will create ton of problems vs. CHA defense.
CHA’s is struggling to defend P&R’s for quite some time now… you just need to know that SAS’s Patty Mills just killed them in the last game w/ 10-13 FG, 4-5 3pts & 8-9 FT for 32 pts primarily via P&R’s plays to understand these late struggles. CHA defense is predicated to protect the rim while they are a subpar perimeter defensive team, and obviously, DAL’s offense is exactly a jump shooting team.
DAL defense has been the main problem for Rick Carlisle but they showed some improvement in L2 games, this is related IMO w/ the fact that D. Harris is now healthy and his speed is important b/c it’s a plus for a DAL slow footed backcourt & especially S. Dalembert is finally some decent basketball in both ends of the floor.
Al Jefferson has been playing great as of late, but DAL has now Dalembert & Wright on the frontcourt to defend him… not a long time ago, D. Blair was their starting center, enough said!
K. Walker has returned to action but he looked rusty to me in both contests - 10-30 FG! I don’t think that CHA will be able to hang around w/ the best Mavericks’ of the season! Yes, they were competitive against the Spurs in the last game, but while SAS is shorthanded and banged up, DAL is now finally healthy and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!
CHA’s is struggling to defend P&R’s for quite some time now… you just need to know that SAS’s Patty Mills just killed them in the last game w/ 10-13 FG, 4-5 3pts & 8-9 FT for 32 pts primarily via P&R’s plays to understand these late struggles. CHA defense is predicated to protect the rim while they are a subpar perimeter defensive team, and obviously, DAL’s offense is exactly a jump shooting team.
DAL defense has been the main problem for Rick Carlisle but they showed some improvement in L2 games, this is related IMO w/ the fact that D. Harris is now healthy and his speed is important b/c it’s a plus for a DAL slow footed backcourt & especially S. Dalembert is finally some decent basketball in both ends of the floor.
Al Jefferson has been playing great as of late, but DAL has now Dalembert & Wright on the frontcourt to defend him… not a long time ago, D. Blair was their starting center, enough said!
K. Walker has returned to action but he looked rusty to me in both contests - 10-30 FG! I don’t think that CHA will be able to hang around w/ the best Mavericks’ of the season! Yes, they were competitive against the Spurs in the last game, but while SAS is shorthanded and banged up, DAL is now finally healthy and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play!
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
Tuesday, February 11, 2014
NBA Free Premium Play 02/11: Sacramento Kings @ Cleveland Cavaliers
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| Sacramento at Cleveland |
| NBA - 501 Sacramento Kings @ 502 Cleveland Cavaliers Play #3 It’s hard to predict these two teams in this season as they are super inconsistent and prone to not “show up” on the court but I expect SAC to have better chances to win this contest, and therefore we have some edge w/ them IMO. Both teams likes to run a ton of P&R’s ball handler plays using their guards, however for some reason, SAC defense has been elite defending this kind of play – ranked #6 allowing 0.75 PPP. Nevertheless, I expect the backcourt battle to be a close matchup as both I. Thomas & K. Irving are tough players to be stopped on the offensive end. Note that L. Deng is banged up w/ his Achilles tendon and so, Rudy Gay will have some edge in here… However the X factor for this contest IMO will be related w/ frontcourt battle… Anderson Varejao is coming from a monster game vs. MEM in which he played 43 minutes and helped CLE to slow down MEM’s frontcourt. The bad news is that he is OUT for tonight’s game and therefore, CLE simply won’t have an answer to stop D. Cousins down low as T. Zeller will be completely overpowered by a D. Cousins that is coming from one of the worst games of the season w/ 3-16 from the field. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Sacramento Kings ML @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline |
NBA Free Premium Play 02/11: Dallas Mavericks @ Charlotte Bobcats
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| Dallas at Charlotte |
| NBA - 503 Dallas Mavericks @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats Play #1 DAL offense is playing in an unbelievable high level right now led by Dirk Nowitzki… They are ranked #4 for the season and in L8 games their Off. Rtg. = insane 123.6! DAL’s Pick n Roll game has been superb and I really think that they will create ton of problems vs. CHA defense. CHA’s is struggling to defend P&R’s for quite some time now… you just need to know that SAS’s Patty Mills just killed them in the last game w/ 10-13 FG, 4-5 3pts & 8-9 FT for 32 pts primarily via P&R’s plays to understand these late struggles. CHA defense is predicated to protect the rim while they are a subpar perimeter defensive team, and obviously, DAL’s offense is exactly a jump shooting team. DAL defense has been the main problem for Rick Carlisle but they showed some improvement in L2 games, this is related IMO w/ the fact that D. Harris is now healthy and his speed is important b/c it’s a plus for a DAL slow footed backcourt & especially S. Dalembert is finally some decent basketball in both ends of the floor. Al Jefferson has been playing great as of late, but DAL has now Dalembert & Wright on the frontcourt to defend him… not a long time ago, D. Blair was their starting center, enough said! K. Walker has returned to action but he looked rusty to me in both contests - 10-30 FG! I don’t think that CHA will be able to hang around w/ the best Mavericks’ of the season! Yes, they were competitive against the Spurs in the last game, but while SAS is shorthanded and banged up, DAL is now finally healthy and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Dallas Mavericks (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline |
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