NBA Premium Play 03/30: Los Angeles Lakers @ Sacramento Kings

NBA - 517 Los Angeles Lakers @ 518 Sacramento Kings

Projected Line: Sacramento by 1 point

The Lakers are favored once again on the road against a lowly team who happens to be 19-16 at home this season. By the way, the last two games Sacramento was a home dog, they crushed Chicago by 121-79 and the LA Clippers by 116-101! The Lakers are in a poor spot for tonight. They had two tough games back to back at Minnesota and Milwaukee, while they had just 1 day off to regroup from Milwaukee's loss and come play tonight at Sacramento. As if that wasn't enough, they are completely banged up. Metta World Peace is out, Steve Nash is questionable and Kobe Bryant is probable, but he will likely force things too much tonight on offense once again.

But the main problem for the Lakers tonight is that the Kings's offense are a terrible matchup for the Lakers's slow footed defense. Sacramento's guards are very fast and they like to attack off the dribble. As you've been watching the Lakers this season, you know how badly they struggle against this kind of quick guards. Just look at their last game, where Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings had a combined of 38 points and 16 assists against them! Sure that Sacramento's defense is a poor unit and so, Dwight Howard could have a big game. However, this will be a wild fast paced game and I don't think the Lakers will have the proper offensive discipline to establish their game through Howard. When Jodie Meeks attempts 12 shots during the game, while Dwight Howard attempt just 8 shots, you know that something is wrong with the Lakers's offense and I don't really expect that to change tonight.

Sacramento's speed and their depth edge will worn the Lakers out tonight. The Lakers keep being overrated and so, I keep fading them. Sacramento has been playing well for quite some time now and they seem to be ultra focused when they face top teams. This is why they've defeated the Clippers, they've hung around at Denver and they also defeated Golden State on the road last Wednesday night! They will treat this contest like it was a playoff game for them and therefore, I'll be taking Sacramento in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 518 Sacramento Kings (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns

NBA - 515 Indiana Pacers @ 516 Phoenix Suns

Projected Line: 196 points

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Indiana is coming from two nice wins on the road against top ranked offenses, in two games where they simply dominated both teams with their suffocating defense. On the other hand, the Pacers's offense was also decent on these two games with 100 and 103 points scored, while shooting well from the perimeter with 6-18 and 7-15 3pts! I believe Indiana is going to relax much more tonight on a game against the lowly Suns. Note that after today's game, Indiana will play against the LA Clippers and Oklahoma City, so it's normal that they will relax tonight and show a much lower defensive intensity than usual, especially when the Pacers's offense will have some huge edges over Phoenix's poor defense.

Now that David West is back, Indiana's frontcourt will crush the Suns's undersized frontcourt. Phoenix is now playing with Luis Scola and one of the Morris Brothers on the front and so, it isn't a surprise that they are allowing 72% FG at the rim! I expect Roy Hibbert and David West to have a field day. Of course, Phoenix will have to overhelp down low in order to protect the rim and they will leave Indiana's shooters alone on the outside. This has been Phoenix's biggest problem on defense this season and this is why they are dead last in the league with 39.5% 3pts allowed! Indiana's perimeter shooting has been streaky all season long, but they were decent on their last two games and so, they are carrying some rhythm on their shooting for tonight's game. Therefore, we will have Indiana's offense with nice edges in both inside and outside game tonight.

So, the main question in here is to know what Phoenix's offense will be able to do tonight. I've already referred that I don't think that Indiana will come to this game with a mindset of shutting down the Suns's offense tonight, as this is the easiest game of their six-game road trip and so, they will relax a bit tonight. Phoenix's offense has been been struggling due to their current lack of talent. However Coach Hunter is rotating their lineup a lot and so, they have always fresh players on the court throughout the whole game. Phoenix is playing on a fast pace lately and thanks to this new run and gun style, the Suns have score over 10 fast break points in all their last seven games, while averaging 16.9 fast break points per game during this span!

The key factor for tonight's game will be Goran Dragic. There has been a controversy due to the fact that Dragic didn't play the team's last two games even though he was healthy, on a decision made exclusively to make sure the Suns enter in tank mode. However, the rest of the Suns's roster showed solidarity with Dragic and the Slovene is probable to play tonight. We can expect a fresh Dragic to be ultra aggressive in tonight's game. The good news for him is that Indiana's defense is just "average" against pick and roll ball handler plays and this is where Dragic excels on his game, so this is a good opportunity for the Suns to have a decent offensive game against an elite defensive team. Considering all these factors, I expect this game to be a high scoring game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 513 Brooklyn Nets @ 514 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: pk line

I have no problems in admitting that I made a mistake in taking the Nets yesterday at Denver. In fact, the biggest error of my card yesterday was taking the Nets on a game where they showed no interest in getting physical with Denver. They turned the ball too much with 21 turnovers, they shot 18-36 FT and they didn't want to bang around with Denver's frontcourt, allowing 62 points in the paint in the process. When Brook Lopez had 4-15 FG and 3-9 FT versus Kostas Koufos, who shoot 6-8 FG, something is wrong with the Nets.

In my opinion, this happened due to the fact that Brooklyn knew that it was going to be impossible to be competitive in back to back games in Denver and then in Utah. Definitely, tonight's game is much more important for their team leader Deron Williams and so, I expect Deron and the rest of the Nets to show a major effort tonight in Deron's comeback to Utah. He will have a very favorable matchup tonight, as Mo Williams is undersized and he can't really defend, while Utah's Coach Corbin keeps using Jamaal Tinsley off the bench instead of giving major minutes to their best PG Alec Burks. Thanks to that, Brooklyn will have a huge positional edge tonight.

The frontcourt duel will be very interesting in tonight's game. Utah's frontcourt crushed Portland tonight, with Paul Millsap shooting 10-14 FG, Al Jefferson 11-21 FG and Derrick Favors 6-8 FG, but the story will be much different tonight, as Utah won't be facing a banged up J.J. Hickson and Meyers Leonard tonight. The Nets have Brook Lopez, Reggie Evans and Andray Blatche on the frontcourt and I expect the Nets to make this frontcourt duel at least a 50/50 one.

Utah may have won their last three games, but all these wins were in very favorable circumstances. They defeated Philadelphia, a team that was playing the last game of their road trip and they saved their players throughout the game. Then, they defeated the lowly Suns who played without Goran Dragic and finally, they defeated Portland on the road, who played without their best player LaMarcus Aldridge. I believe Utah is being overrated tonight and so, I'll be taking the Nets plus the points in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 03/30: Charlotte Bobcats @ Philadelphia 76ers

NBA - 505 Charlotte Bobcats @ 506 Philadelphia 76ers

Projected Line: 191 points

We have two teams in here that are coming from back to back games, where they heavily used their starters. Philadelphia still feels that they have a shot in going to the playoffs and so, Coach Collins wants to win at any cost, while Charlotte is using their starters a lot, as they have been competitive lately and Coach Dunlap is trying to get some decent results in order to avoid getting fired at the end of the season. That's why Kemba Walker played 41 minutes and Gerald Henderson 46 minutes yesterday in NY against the Knicks. Just like I've been mentioning for a while, the Bobcats's offense really needs their two main guards to perform well in order to be remotely competitive. That happened last night with Henderson having 9-16 FG, 35 points and 15-17 FT! Now on a back to back spot, after a huge effort yesterday, it's normal that they will have a letdown today and with that, the Bobcats's offense will heavily struggle.

The same will happen with Philadelphia. They didn't want to waste their chance of winning last night at Cleveland, but thanks to that, all their starters played at least 36 minutes. Coach Collins is putting the Sixers playing at a ridiculously slow pace during the fourth quarter in order to spend as much time as possible to keep their leads in the games and this is why their last two games at Milwaukee and Cleveland had such a small amount of points scored during the fourth quarter. We are also in front of two teams in here whose offense is super perimeter-oriented, so on poor spots, they immediately struggle. Their offensive rates in back to back games this season has been clearly worse than on spots where they are rested, so I expect a low scoring game in here tonight. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 505/506 Under 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA Free Premium Play 03/30: Orlando Magic @ Atlanta Hawks

Orlando  at Atlanta

NBA - 503 Orlando Magic @ 504 Atlanta Hawks Projected Line: Atlanta by 15 points Orlando was competent yesterday on their home game against Washington by winning the game, even though Jameer Nelson only played 8 minutes. Washington couldn't take advantage of the edges they had on this matchup with a poor outside shooting game (4-20 3pts) and weak transition numbers as well with 3-12 FG and 0.83 PPP! Orlando took advantage of the Wizards's laziness to have a good first half, but then Washington showed some defensive effort in the third quarter and with that, Orlando scored just 4 points in the first six minutes of the second half while attempting some really bad shots. On the other hand, Washington played well on offense and defense during this span of time, but then they couldn't score a single point in the final 3:26 of the quarter. The Magic eventually won the game down the stretch, but with Moe Harkless playing 42 minutes and Tobias Harris 45 minutes! I believe that Orlando's tired legs will be a huge problem for them today. They have been playing super shorthanded lately and Coach Vaughn simply doesn't rotate the team. On their game at Charlotte, four of their players were on court for over 42 minutes, while on their game against Miami, once again four of their starters played at least 40 minutes! They will now play at Atlanta tonight, on a game against a Hawks team that is coming from a loss at Boston that left a bad taste on their mouths. Boston was on fire on their outside shots and they didn't give a single chance to Atlanta. Their win was so easy that Coach Larry Drew was able to save their key players for today's game, with Josh Smith being the only played that was on court for over 30 minutes. Matchup wise, Atlanta's transition game will be a problem for Orlando's poor transition defense and with the Hakws being a top team in scoring at the rim, Orlando's poor interior defense will struggle tonight as well. The Magic would need their perimeter shooting to keep this game competitive and on this poor physical spot for them, they won't be able to do that at all. Therefore, I expect an easy win for Atlanta tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Atlanta Hawks (-12) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/30: Chicago Bulls @ Dallas Mavericks

Chicago  at Dallas

NBA - 501 Chicago Bulls @ 502 Dallas Mavericks Projected Line: 93 points FIRST HALF We have a weird early game on a Saturday afternoon. Dallas is coming from a game against a top defensive team, where they got completely shutdown by the Pacers, while they were also outrebounded by grabbing just 39.5% of the rebounds in that game. The Mavericks will host another good defensive team in the Bulls today. O.J. Mayo is also injured on his shoulder and he is questionable for today, This means that Vince Carter will have to play more minutes and he will have a tough matchup against a good defender like Jimmy Butler. I believe Dallas will be better prepared today to be physical since the start of the game, unlike what it happened on their Thursday game against Indiana. Chicago is coming from a big home win against Miami, where they showed a lot of hustle, but they won't have an easy spot today, as they had just 1 day off between games, they had to make a considerable trip and they will play early in the day today. They will be facing a Dallas team that struggles on defense at the PG position, but Kirk Hinrich isn't a great threat to the Mavs's defense. On the other hand, Dallas may have some edge on transitions today, but the Bulls with Kirk Hinrich and Jimmy Butler as their starting backcourt is a much better transition defensive team than they have been with Nate Robinson and Marco Belinelli. The Bulls's 3pts defense is amazing and so, Dallas will struggle in having a good outside shooting game just like they struggled against the Pacers on their last game. I believe both teams will show a lot of intensity early on, while the bad spot for both teams will make both offenses struggle early in the game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under on the First Half of today's early game. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 96,5 FIRST HALF @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA 03/29 Advanced Stats Numbers

Washington at Orlando							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
WAS	23	23	25	21	92		87.72	105.22	0.40	12.83	39.13	34.57
ORL	24	34	20	19	97			110.21	0.46	8.60	26.00	20.93
Atlanta at Boston							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
ATL	30	26	24	27	107		94.94	109.75	0.50	11.65	26.32	21.59
BOS	32	34	26	26	118			127.72	0.61	12.35	23.08	20.48
Charlotte at New York							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
CHAR	20	27	22	33	102		89.20	113.47	0.53	16.40	28.57	32.88
NY	38	31	19	23	111			125.41	0.55	13.44	33.33	33.77
Toronto at Detroit							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
TOR	19	27	36	17	99		84.52	117.24	0.56	12.25	30.30	8.54
DET	26	19	15	22	82			96.93	0.44	13.12	25.58	19.74
Philadelphia at Cleveland							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
PHI	19	26	32	20	97		85.92	115.61	0.53	9.05	29.27	6.98
CLE	24	21	21	21	87			98.94	0.45	9.75	26.19	10.47
Houston at Memphis							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
HOU	29	24	16	25	94		85.67	109.72	0.48	13.43	34.09	20.99
MEM	31	30	23	19	103			120.23	0.53	13.69	39.39	24.05
Miami at New Orleans							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
MIA	32	28	21	27	108		84.94	129.25	0.71	15.55	11.54	14.49
NO	22	21	17	29	89			103.10	0.49	18.83	31.43	21.62
Oklahoma City at Minnesota							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
OKC	23	25	29	16	93		89.13	104.39	0.49	15.41	25.00	20.25
MIN	23	30	27	21	101			113.27	0.48	10.39	30.23	26.51
L.A. Clippers at San Antonio							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
LAC	28	34	17	23	102		84.23	119.06	0.56	10.87	31.58	14.81
SA	30	31	24	19	104			125.62	0.57	9.76	18.75	27.03
Brooklyn at Denver							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
BK	23	15	28	21	87		88.07	98.68	0.44	18.13	48.98	22.78
DEN	26	29	25	29	109			123.90	0.59	12.04	24.24	28.38
Utah at Portland							Advanced Stats		4 Factors
Teams	1	2	3	4	T		PACE	Offense	EFG%	TOR	ORR	FTR
UTA	22	20	32	31	105		87.36	120.30	0.52	9.62	30.95	17.44
POR	30	22	23	20	95			108.65	0.54	16.48	17.14	34.33