NBA Premium Play 02/27: Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers

NBA - 719 Denver Nuggets @ 720 Portland Trailblazers

Projected Line: Portland by 2 points

Denver had back to back games at Washington and Charlotte, then they played at home against the Lakers in a game where they had a big effort of course, and they will now play at Portland, just to go back home to face Oklahoma City Friday Night. Therefore, not only this is a poor physical spot for Denver tonight, as it is also a poor spot in terms of mindset, as they are already thinking about their game against Oklahoma City right now. 

Portland has been having a lot of success against Denver this season and they are able to force the Nuggets to shoot a lot from the perimeter on the games between these two teams, an area where Denver struggles and they have shown exactly that with 0-22 3pts and 9-25 3pts in their two previous games against the Blazers this season, for a combined of 9-47 3pts! The Blazers aren't a poor transition defensive team (#11 in the league) and they are also decent on pick and roll ball handler defense by being #13 in the league. Portland's main defensive problem is on the interior, but it's more on 1*1 than in terms of team help. Denver likes to pound their opponents on the down low, but they don't have a frontcourt player who can attack 1*1. They pound at the paint via offensive rebounds and dunks from Kenneth Faried and JaVale McGee, so the Blazers's poor 1*1 interior defense doesn't get exposed big time against Denver.

There is also a big reason why Portland is competitive against Denver. The Blazers are a jump shooting team and they have the perfect matchup in the Nuggets's defense that is #30 in the league on spot up plays! With Denver playing on the road, on a terrible spot and with a very poor matchup for their defense, I can only expect Portland to take advantage of that and pick up a nice win over the Nuggets tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 720 Portland Trailblazers (+2,5) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz

NBA - 717 Atlanta Hawks @ 718 Utah Jazz

Projected Line: Utah by 8 points

Atlanta has a major handicap for tonight's game and that is Zaza Pachulia's injury. Even if he plays tonight (he is questionable), he won't be physically at 100% and the Hawks needed him at his best to avoid getting outmuscled by Utah's powerful frontcourt. Atlanta is 3-0 since the All Star Break, but they have just grabbed 47.62%, 42.10% and 47.44% of the rebounds on these games. They will now facing a Jazz team that should be able to do a nice defensive job tonight by stopping Atlanta in transition. Utah is #11 in the league on transition defense with 1.13 PPP allowed and with their young backcourt players, they should be even better than their season average shows.

Utah had a dark period where Coach Corbin insisted in giving major minutes to veterans like Jamaal Tinsley and Randy Foye, two players who are slow footed and they were constantly exposed on the break because of that. Tinsley has completely lost his spot on the rotation and on their last game against the Celtics, it was Earl Watson the team's starting PG, with Tinsley getting a DNP, while Foye's minutes have been getting reduced as well, as he played only 20 minutes against Boston, even though the game went to overtime! With Alec Burks, DeMarre Carroll and Gordon Hayward, Utah gains a lot of athleticism on the perimeter and they can be a great transition defensive team, something that will cause a lot of problems to Atlanta's offense, as they depend a lot from their transition plays to be productive. 

On offense, the Jazz will have a clear edge on post up plays. Atlanta's defense is mediocre against this kind of plays by being just ranked #20 in the league with 0.84 PPP allowed and they have been regressing lately with 0.93 PPP over their last 10 games! Without Zaza Pachulia or with him limited, Utah's edge on this area only gets even bigger! On the first game played between these two teams, Utah dominated until the middle of the third quarter, where they led by 75-60, just to some poor coaching decision from Utah's coach in not taking a timeout during a big Atlanta run, while allowing Randy Foye to play a team high 41 minutes, allowed the Hawks to comeback in the game and win it at the end. This time, and after a rare home loss against Boston, Utah will be fired up tonight to outplay Atlanta, who won't be able to match the same level of aggressiveness. Therefore, I expect the Jazz to pick up an easy win tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 718 Utah Jazz (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs

NBA - 715 Phoenix Suns @ 716 San Antonio Spurs

Projected Line: San Antonio by 20 points

Phoenix won an ugly basketball game last night at home against Minnesota in overtime. Phoenix's offense was a bit interesting due to the fact that they shot 41% FG, even though they had no ball movement, with 21 turnovers and several plays where the shotclock was expiring with them not being able to prepare a single offensive set play! Well, that's not unexpected considering the fact that Wesley Johnson played almost 40 minutes, while Michael Beasley played just 13 minutes. What saved the Suns yesterday was Minnesota's horrible shooting. The Wolves's bench keeps being a disaster, Alexey Shved is completely missing in action, J.J. Barea keeps forcing shots and this time, Luke Ridnour and Ricky Rubio combined a shooting of 5-23 FG! Coach Adelman started the second half with a three-guard lineup formed by Ricky Rubio, J.J. Barea and Luke Ridnour, and even though the trio ended the game with a combined of 12-40 FG, Phoenix struggled to adjust to Minnesota's speed on the backcourt. This was one of the reasons for the high amount of turnovers from the Suns, but Minnesota's offense was a complete disaster and wasn't able to fully take advantage of the Suns's errors throughout the game.

The Suns will play at San Antonio tonight, on a terrible physical spot for them. Their task for tonight is immediately tough because of that, especially against an elite rested team of San Antonio, who hasn't played at home for almost a month and so, they will have a fired up crowd for tonight. Phoenix's offense is such a mess with so many turnovers that it's very easy for their opponents to take advantage of their errors to score easy points off TO's. These two teams faced each other in Phoenix last Sunday and San Antonio easily won the contest by 10 points, in a game where they could have won by more than 20 points. In fact, the Spurs led the game by 21 points at a certain point of the game. However, the Spurs were on a poor spot on that game, as they were playing their final game of the Rodeo Trip, while coming from tough back to back games at LA against the Clippers and at Golden State, in a contest that went to overtime. Tony Parker didn't face the Suns last Sunday and with that, the Spurs slowed down in the fourth quarter and allowed the Suns to recover a bit and have a "respectable" loss.

The same won't happen tonight. San Antonio is rested, Tony Parker will play and it's the Suns who are on a tough physical spot this time. However, independently from the spot, given the current form of the Suns, they will get crushed against any elite team. This is exactly what it's going to happen tonight and so, I'll be taking San Antonio in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 716 San Antonio Spurs (-15.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Milwaukee Bucks @ Houston Rockets

NBA - 711 Milwaukee Bucks @ 712 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: Houston by 4 points

Milwaukee finally won a game down the stretch against a decent team last night! The game wasn't well played, with Milwaukee starting the game trailing in the score by 0-11, but they committed less turnovers than Dallas plus their had a superior second unit with J.J. Redick, Mike Dunleavy and Drew Gooden that outplayed the Mavericks's bench. For tonight, the Bucks will be playing on a back to back spot, but only one player had big minutes last night: Monta Ellis with 44 minutes. The second most used player against Dallas was Brandon Jennings with just 32 minutes. Houston isn't a team that can pound their opponents physically via rebounding, as they try to outplay their opponents with their speed, but that's something that Milwaukee also has in every position, as they are a very mobile team. Curiously, Milwaukee won't be an easy matchup for Houston, as even though the Rockets have more talent on their starting lineup than the Bucks, Milwaukee has a similar style to Houston and they have a better bench. James Harden and Jeremy Lin have been playing well on offense all season long and today won't be an exception, but the truth is that they don't defend well with poor effort, so Milwaukee's backcourt with Monta Ellis, Brandon Jennings, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy can easily outshoot Houston's offense. 

Defensively, Larry Sanders's presence is huge for Milwaukee, as he can really alter shots down low! This is why Milwaukee has one of the best rim defenses in the league with just 61% FG allowed! At the same time, due to their frontcourt's great mobility, the Bucks are also an elite unit on defending pick and roll ball handler plays by being #3 in the league with 0.72 PPP! Note also that Milwaukee is ranked #7 in the league on 3pts defense with 34.4% allowed, so they have in theory a great defense to do a great job against Houston's offense! The Rockets are one of the teams that attempt more shots at the rim and at the 3pts line, while their volume of pick and roll ball handler plays is also huge as well. However, the Bucks's defense are an elite team in all these areas! Of course Milwaukee struggles to defend transition plays and they are awful in defensive rebounding, however the Rockets aren't a good offensive rebounding team as expected (they play so small that they aren't miracles) by being #20 in the league with a 26% offensive rebound rate. 

On the other side, Houston's defense is just terrible. If they had a decent defense, Houston would be one of the best teams in the league, but they aren't. They are #28 in the league on transition defense, while their perimeter defense is also quite good. Milwaukee can be dangerous because they play on a fast pace style and so, they are ready to play at Houston's very fast tempo without a problem. The Bucks's backcourt is dangerous, while their frontcourt with Ersan Ilyasova and Larry Sanders is perfect for this kind of games. Ilyasova is a stretch shooting PF, while Sanders is a very mobile center, so they can run up and down on the floor without any kind of problem.  

On the first game between these two teams this season, Houston won at Milwaukee by 115-101 in a weird game. The Bucks were up by 58-47 at halftime, but they committed 25 turnovers and that was the key for their loss. Curiously, the Bucks have been one of the best teams in the league in avoiding turnovers with just 12.8 turnovers per game over their last six contests. Therefore, I expect them to be competitive in here and so, I'll be taking them in here.

NOTE: you can get MIL+9 @ Pinnacle Sports @ -111

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 711 Milwaukee Bucks (+8,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Lines: 192 points | Memphis by 11 points

Dallas played at home against the Lakers on Sunday afternoon and then, they also faced Milwaukee at home last night. The Mavericks finally ended their home span, where they had favorable spots in playing home games against teams that were mostly lowly teams and sometimes even on a poor back to back spot. Dallas took advantage of that, but as soon as they faced decent teams like Atlanta, the Lakers and Milwaukee, things were different. As usual, their in-game inconsistency was a problem for them. They started yesterday's game against Milwaukee with a 11-0 run, just to lose that advantage on the score shortly after, while they were also up by 88-83 with 3 minutes to go, just to allow a 2-13 run to Milwaukee to close the game. The Mavericks struggled once again on turnovers, while their poor rebounding was hidden in most of these games due to Dallas having a physical edge in almost every game of this span! Yesterday Dirk Nowitzki was excellent with 20 rebounds and 8-16 FG for 21 points! What made the Mavericks lose last night was their second unit getting outplayed by the Bucks, besides the usual problem with turnovers and a poor outside shooting game with 1-17 3pts!

I don't believe Dallas will be able to handle their poor spot for tonight and so, they will crushed by the improved Grizzlies. Dallas's defensive rebounding problems and turnover issues will be completely exposed by Memphis, who is an elite area in these two areas! Dirk had a monster effort against Milwaukee last night and I doubt he will able to produce such effort tonight as well against Zach Randolph! Even though we are talking about a small sample, Dirk had 34.8% FG, 13.7ppg and 5.3 rpg on the three back to back games that he has already played this season!

We know that Dallas's offense relies on the speed of their guards. They are an elite transition offensive team, but Memphis's defense is #7 in the league on transition plays with 1.10 PPP allowed, even though they have regressed on this area a bit since the Rudy Gay trade. On the last game between these two teams, Dallas crushed Memphis by 104-83, in a game where the Grizzlies were on a back to back spot, after having played a very important game against San Antonio in the previous night that went to overtime. A letdown in the following game against the Mavericks was inevitable and this is why I took Dallas in that game. Memphis certainly remembers of this loss and so, I expect them to get revenge tonight. 

Memphis with Tayshaun Prince has been having great offensive games every time they face fast paced teams. Of course that when they play half court games, like they did at Brooklyn or at Toronto, they show some stellar defense, but against fast paced teams like Sacramento, Detroit or Minnesota, they have nice offensive numbers. I believe the same will happen tonight, with the Grizzlies forcing a lot of turnovers that will result in an easy transition points for them. Memphis will also have a big edge down low over Dallas's poor interior defense and that will allow them to have a big offensive game tonight. I expect the Grizzlies to have an easy win tonight on a great offensive performance from them, therefore I'll be taking both the Grizzlies and the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Memphis Grizzlies (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker (ALREADY RELEASED)

***ADDED PLAY***

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 709/710 Over 187 @ -105 / 1.95 on Betonline

NBA Premium Play 02/27: Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic

NBA - 703 Sacramento Kings @ 704 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: Sacramento by 5 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

Orlando was able to beat Philadelphia on the road last night, even though they were double digits dogs! They had some merit, but what really impressed me was the lack of effort from Philadelphia, in such a way that Coach Collins called out the entire team! I don't believe Orlando will show lack of effort in their following games, with their young players trying to impress the coach. Their problem is really their lack of talent. Orlando is a pure jump shooting team with only Nikola Vucevic being able to operate well down low. Yesterday the Magic shot just 15-19 FG at the rim versus a huge percentage volume of shots from the outside. Fortunately for them, Orlando was very well on their outside shooting with 13-27 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-13 treys! This was great for them, but I don't believe they will be able to do that two nights in a row. On defense, Orlando benefited from Philadelphia's complete lack of aggressiveness, who scored just 26 points in the paint, while shooting just 8-10 FG at the rim! Orlando's interior defense has been poor the whole season, but the Sixers never tested that yesterday, as only 19% of their shots came from 9 feet or closer to the basket, in comparison to 60% from 16 feet or further! 

This won't certainly happen tonight against Sacramento, as the Kings have good frontcourt players like DeMarcus Cousins, Jason Thompson or Patrick Patterson. They scored 60 points in the paint last night in Miami, while shooting 25-42 (60%) FG at the rim. Of course this isn't a great spot for them, as they are coming from a double overtime game last night against the Heat, where five of their players were on the court for more than 40 minutes! However, the truth is that Orlando is playing shorthanded and they will be playing their sixth game in nine days, so this isn't an easy spot for them neither. Of course I don't expect to see Sacramento showing a lot of defensive intensity, but Orlando's poor interior defense is going to get pounded big time tonight. If Sacramento had won yesterday, then they would be on a letdown spot today, but the Kings are certainly looking for a win on their current road trip and yesterday's game gave them a lot of confidence, as they went toe-to-toe with the best team in the league. Therefore, I expect Sacramento's superior talent to get the best out of Orlando tonight and so, I'll be taking the Kings in here on a Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 703 Sacramento Kings (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/27: Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies

Dallas  at Memphis

NBA - 709 Dallas Mavericks @ 710 Memphis Grizzlies Projected Lines: Memphis by 10 points Dallas played at home against the Lakers on Sunday afternoon and then, they also faced Milwaukee at home last night. The Mavericks will now play their third game in four nights and they've finally ended their home span, where they had favorable spots in playing home games against teams that were mostly lowly teams and sometimes even on a poor back to back spot. Dallas took advantage of that, but as soon as they faced decent teams like Atlanta, the Lakers and Milwaukee, things were different. As usual, their in-game inconsistency was a problem for them. They started yesterday's game against Milwaukee with a 11-0 run, just to lose that advantage on the score shortly after, while they were also up by 88-83 with 3 minutes to go, just to allow a 2-13 run to Milwaukee to close the game. The Mavericks struggled once again on turnovers, while their poor rebounding was hidden in most of these games due to Dallas having a physical edge in almost every game of this span! Yesterday Dirk Nowitzki was excellent with 20 rebounds and 8-16 FG for 21 points! What made the Mavericks lose last night was their second unit getting outplayed by the Bucks, besides the usual problem with turnovers and a poor outside shooting game with 1-17 3pts! I don't believe Dallas will be able to handle their poor spot for tonight and so, they will crushed by the improved Grizzlies. Dallas's defensive rebounding problems and turnover issues will be completely exposed by Memphis, who is an elite team in these two areas! Dirk had a monster effort against Milwaukee last night and I doubt he will able to produce such effort tonight as well against Zach Randolph! Even though we are talking about a small sample, Dirk had 34.8% FG, 13.7ppg and 5.3 rpg on the three back to back games that he has already played this season! We know that Dallas's offense relies on the speed of their guards. They are an elite transition offensive team, but Memphis's defense is #7 in the league on transition plays with 1.10 PPP allowed, even though they have regressed on this area a bit since the Rudy Gay trade. On the last game between these two teams, Dallas crushed Memphis by 104-83, in a game where the Grizzlies were on a back to back spot, after having played a very important game against San Antonio in the previous night that went to overtime. A letdown in the following game against the Mavericks was inevitable and this is why I took Dallas in that game. Memphis certainly remembers of this loss and so, I expect them to get revenge tonight. Memphis with Tayshaun Prince has been having great offensive games every time they face fast paced teams. Of course that when they play half court games, like they did at Brooklyn or at Toronto, they show some stellar defense, but against fast paced teams like Sacramento, Detroit or Minnesota, they have nice offensive numbers. I believe the same will happen tonight, with the Grizzlies forcing a lot of turnovers that will result in an easy transition points for them. Memphis will also have a big edge down low over Dallas's poor interior defense and that will allow them to have a big offensive game tonight. I expect the Grizzlies to have an easy win tonight on a great offensive performance from them, therefore I'll be taking the Grizzlies in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 710 Memphis Grizzlies (-7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker