NBA Premium Play 04/03

NBA - 701 San Antonio Spurs @ 702 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1

In normal conditions, this would be a pass in here as I really don’t “see” a true edge for OKC w/ this current spread line of 3/4 points. However, I believe that this is a special spot for OKC and I really expect them to win tonight’s contest w/ some margin.

Unlike MIA in the last season, the Spurs don’t give a damn about their “streak”. Coach Popovich won’t give major minutes to their starters in order to win the games. Actually, I really think that he doesn’t like this “unbeaten status” for his team, because teams w/ such major streaks tend to lose some focus and this isn’t the right timing for such “letdown”.

The last 3 SAS’s opponents played vs. the Spurs in tough b2b spots (NO, IND and last night GSW). Obviously, the Spurs with their phenomenal second unit really crushed their opponents w/ some ease. Probably, they would crush them anyway but being “deep” on the bench in this bad physical spots is really a great edge.

This won’t happen tonight… We have the Spurs coming from a b2b game vs. GSW that will face a super rested (3 days off to rest) OKC team that could prepare and put a proper game plan for this contest. Probably, Pop will rest one of two key players, but I really like OKC’s spot in this contest and I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 702 Oklahoma City Thunder (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 04/03

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 413-341-12 ATS | +142.96 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 413-341-12 ATS | +63.57 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Cleveland (-2) Double Dime WIN

Brooklyn (+3) LOSS

Houston ML LOSS

Over ATL/CHI 183.5 WIN

Over DEN/NO 209 WIN

Over SAS/GSW 201 PUSH

Minnesota (+4.5) WIN

Phoenix (-3) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from another successful day as we went 4-3-1 ATS in our plays and cashed pretty easily our Top Play with the Cavaliers @ORL last night.

All our “winners” plays were won by double digits points and we could have enjoyed a tremendous night if not the classic low scoring 4th quarter in a blowout game between the Spurs and the Warriors, while the Suns had a tremendous “choke” down the stretch after being up as many as 17 points. That’s the NBA folks…

We are making a late push in the last stretch of the regular season as there is still plenty of good opportunities for us to cash some tickets.

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

Moving on for today, we have just 2 games to work (“TNT games”), so let’s do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 04/02

NBA - 521 New Orleans Pelicans @ 522 Denver Nuggets

Play #1

This is going to be a classic game between two losing teams that won’t have much incentive to play defense.

Despite scoring only 92 points in the last game, the Nuggets actually were pretty efficient vs. MEM’s elite defense – they shot 49.3% FG and had a nice Off. Rtg. of 110.7! The problem? The game was played under MEM’s terms w/ a super slow paced factor of 84.8!

For this contest, I expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and the game to be a run and gun affair because this is what happened in the previous 3 contests between these two teams.

The Pelicans are coming from a bad offensive performance vs. SAC in a game that A. Davis looked like a bit off sync after missing one game due to an injury. As usual, NO’s defense was atrocious as they allowed SAC to abuse them down low while dominating the boards. I expect Davis to bounce back strong in this favorable matchup vs. K. Faried.

The last H2H game ended w/ 188 points @ regulation in a game where both teams were incredibly sloppy w/ 51 total TO’s and combined to shot 12-37 3pts! Still they were able to score easy near the basket w/ 62 & 58 points. I expect both teams to score easy at the rim but w/ better overall offensive numbers, my fair line for this contest is 212 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 507 Houston Rockets @ 508 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

As expected, the Rockets lost last night @BKN… It was really tough that T. Jones was a late scratch and Motiejunas played only 8 minutes due to foul trouble and so, HOU was completely shorthanded on the frontcourt. The good news is that Jones will play tonight…

This play would be a pure void if not the fact that K. Lowry is OUT for tonight! He is absolutely their best player and the Raptors simply won’t be the same without him – he didn’t miss a single so far in this season! J. Vasquez will start @PG and his lack of speed will be completely explored by HOU’s quick guards.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Houston Rockets ML @ +105 / 2.05 on Bookmaker

NBA - 509 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 510 Orlando Magic

Play #3

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

As weird it might sound, the Cavaliers have legit chances to grab the final spot for the playoffs! They are playing really well as of late w/ their guards being super aggressive and attacking the rim off the dribble. It looks like K. Irving will play tonight so this trend surely will go on in here. The good news is that ORL’s PNR defense has been subpar all season long and I really expect CLE to explore J. Nelson’s lack of speed on the defensive end.

CLE is 3-0 vs. ORL so far in this season for some reason! ORL is making some “weird” decisions down the stretch (hello tanking) and so, this short spread line is a perfect line for us.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 509 Cleveland Cavaliers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 04/02: New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

New Orleans  at Denver

NBA - 521 New Orleans Pelicans @ 522 Denver Nuggets Play #1 This is going to be a classic game between two losing teams that won’t have much incentive to play defense. Despite scoring only 92 points in the last game, the Nuggets actually were pretty efficient vs. MEM’s elite defense – they shot 49.3% FG and had a nice Off. Rtg. of 110.7! The problem? The game was played under MEM’s terms w/ a super slow paced factor of 84.8! For this contest, I expect the Nuggets to dictate the pace and the game to be a run and gun affair because this is what happened in the previous 3 contests between these two teams. The Pelicans are coming from a bad offensive performance vs. SAC in a game that A. Davis looked like a bit off sync after missing one game due to an injury. As usual, NO’s defense was atrocious as they allowed SAC to abuse them down low while dominating the boards. I expect Davis to bounce back strong in this favorable matchup vs. K. Faried. The last H2H game ended w/ 188 points @ regulation in a game where both teams were incredibly sloppy w/ 51 total TO’s and combined to shot 12-37 3pts! Still they were able to score easy near the basket w/ 62 & 58 points. I expect both teams to score easy at the rim but w/ better overall offensive numbers, my fair line for this contest is 212 points. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 209 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 04/02

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 409-338-10 ATS | +139.71 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 409-338-10 ATS | +61.82 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Brooklyn (-3) WIN

Over POR/LAL 219.5 WIN

Daily Message: 

After consecutive bad days in which we had some bad plays in this Saturday and Sunday, we bounced back and SWEPT the board in consecutive nights by going 5-0 ATS in our plays.

Our “motto” throughout this long season has been "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

We will have some bad days (that will happen in the future) but what matters it’s the long term picture and my ability to adjust and correct the errors in a daily basis.

We are now exactly two weeks from the end of the regular season, so surely, we still have some good opportunities to cash in the NBA!

Moving on for today, we have a BIG card of 12 games to work, so let’s do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 04/01

NBA - 761 Houston Rockets @ 762 Brooklyn Nets

Play #1

The absence of Howard for the Rockets tonight will be the X factor of this contest…

Without Howard, the Rockets don’t have a skilled inside player capable of punishing BKN’s undersized lineup as Asik simply doesn’t have such ability. The Nets defense can turn their attention exclusively for HOU's guards. HOU is coming from a bad loss vs. LAC in which B. Griffin got injured early on the game and still, LAC torched the Rockets via their guards! HOU had only 14 assists in that game showing some poor stagnant offense.

Also, HOU’s 2nd unit was awful and this is something that I think will hurt HOU's tonight because Canaan, Garcia, Casspi and Motiejunas are far from being solid unit and they will be completely outplayed by BKN’s great second unit. Eventually, coach McHale won't use those guys while giving big minutes to their starters...this will be damaging down the stretch vs. BKN team that rotates well their players.

BKN’s offensive flow is great as they have several players w/ good shooting range. Their defense is predicated in creating TO’s and the Rockets are prone to turn the ball over (they had 20 & 19 TO’s in L2 games).

My fair line for this contest w/ HOU being shorthanded is BKN-6 and so, I’m taking the Nets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 762 Brooklyn Nets (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 765 Portland Trail Blazers @ 766 Los Angeles Lakers

Play #2

We can say that the Blazers “are back” now that LaMarcus Aldridge returned to action. POR is one of the best offensive teams in the league w/ Aldridge on the court and in L3 games they had nice Off. Rtg’s of 116.7, 108.9 and 118.9.

The simple fact that the Blazers averaged “only” 98.7 points per game in those 3 games can be related w/ one word: “Tempo”! All those 3 games were super slow paced affairs… ATL was playing their 4th game in 5 nights and they were shorthanded, so they’ve decided to slow down things. On the other 2 contestes, the Blazers played vs. CHI & MEM and we all know that we it’s impossible to play @ fast pace vs. both CHI & MEM.

For tonight, POR will face LAL and obviously, we can expect the Blazers to finally play @ run and gun style and torch the Lakers’ atrocious defense.

 I’ve faded LAL in their last game vs. PHX and really, I didn’t have a chance because LAL crushed the Suns w/ 53% FG, 22 fast break points and 56 points in the paint for 115 points. LAL for some reason is playing good basketball at home as of late. Note that both Pau Gasol and Steve Nash are probable for tonight so we have POR w/ more talent on the offensive end while Lillard & LMA are smiling right now…

My fair line for this contest is 222/224 points and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 765/766 Over 219.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 04/01

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 407-338-10 ATS | +133.71 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 407-338-10 ATS | +59.82 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

San Antonio (-4) WIN

Miami (-5.5) WIN

New York (-3.5) WIN

Daily Message: 

After consecutive bad days in which we had some truly awful plays, we bounced back and SWEPT the board 3-0 ATS last night.

I learned my lesson by going w/ IND in their road game @WAS and faded them in the last 2 games w/ success as this teams really looks lost on the court – a potential huge problem for them because the playoffs starts in about 15 days.

Moving on for today, we have a card of 3 games to work, so let’s do it! BKN vs. HOU & DAL vs. GSW are really interesting games so it will be a fun day to work especially on these 2 games. As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter