NBA Free Premium Play 03/14: Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic

Washington  at Orlando

NBA - 801 Washington Wizards @ 802 Orlando Magic Play #1 I had the Over in the last ORL game vs. DEN and actually I saw live that game… Well, ORL was completely crushed on the boards, ended up having just 43.4% reb/rate% while DEN’s athletic frontcourt dominated the undersized Magic line – Faried, Arthur and Hickson combined to score 60 points while shooting 24-38 FG for 63.2%! Offensively, the Magic was decent as Oladipo looked fine to me (he played 28 minutes). For this contest, I expect ORL to be a tough matchup for the Wizards! WAS is playing without Nene Hilario for quite some games, and this would be one of those games where Nene would crush ORL’s frontcourt, as the Magic since Big Baby went to LAC, don’t have any “capable” power forward! The Wizards have only in Gortat their “truly” post player, so it isn’t a surprise for me that they have only scored 30 and 32 points in the paint in L2 games. Unlike DEN, the Wizards won’t be able to crush the Magic down. We will watch a game featuring two perimeter shooting teams and the Magic w/ Nelson, Afflalo and Oladipo are a dangerous team at home, especially now that Nikola Vucevic is starting to play really well (he’s averaging 17.0 ppg while shooting 54% FG). I expect this contest to be a tight game and obviously, we have some edge w/ ORL+5 in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Orlando Magic (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Daily Message 03/14

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 355-297-10 ATS | +110.61 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 355-297-10 ATS | +50.52 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Over CHI/HOU 192.5 WIN

Under ATL/MIL 210 WIN

Over OKC/LAL 227 WIN

Daily Message: 

We've SWEPT the board last night in the NBA by going 3-0 ATS in our plays.

Like I've said yesterday… Finally these last adjustments are paying off and we are now 13-4 ATS in the last 3 days…Last night's sweep was really special for us because all plays were Total Plays, and after struggling so badly w/ totals for such long stretch, it was nice to cash them w/ some ease.

There is about one month left in the regular season so we still have plenty of time to go in a nice streak for the playoffs!

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

Moving on for today, we have a BIG card of 10 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! NOTE: Final Update will be released @6:30 PM EST!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Plays 03/13

NBA - 691 Houston Rockets @ 692 Chicago Bulls

Play #1

My fair line for this contest is 196 points and due to some early line movement, we have now the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ the Over.

The Bulls offense is far from being elite but they are playing quite well for some time. D.J. Augustin has been a nice surprise for them w/ his nice outside shooting ability, but the key factor has been J. Noah. His passing ability on the high post is tremendous as he reads perfectly well the game. This is where I think that the Bulls will have some offensive edge over the Rockets IMO. HOU’s defense can be lazy especially off the ball (Harden’s struggles are well documented), and I expect the Bulls to explore this HOU’s defensive weakness.

On the other side, CHI’s defense is having some problems to stop opposing quick guards so far in the season. Tony Parker really abused them in the last game and the Rockets have in Harden and Lin, two bad individual matchups for them. Howard is coming from a tough and bad game @OKC, and he will be fired up for tonight. Noah is a great defensive player but his main strength is more related into being a phenomenal “help defender”. With Howard on the court, he simply can’t provide such help and the Rockets will explore Boozer’s awful overall defense.

With both teams having some key offensive edges to explore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 691/692 Over 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 693 Milwaukee Bucks @ 694 Atlanta Hawks

Play #2

ATL Def. Rtg since the All star break = awful 118.6! They were completely shorthanded on the frontcourt and to makes things even worse, they had a tough road trip in which they faced some of the most potent offensive teams in the league like PHX, POR, GSW or LAC.

Fortunately, Pero Antic and Paul Millsap returned to action in L2 games and now ATL can now play a bit better on the defensive end. They had 2 days off to rest and prepare this contest while the Bucks offense is nowhere near the level of the ATL’s competition as of late.

ATL has been abused on the boards and because they had to pack the paint in order to protect the rim, they are allowing 42.1% 3pts in L10 games -2nd worst mark in the league! The good news is that MIL is struggling pretty badly from the perimeter lately - L5 games they are shooting 28-95 from 3pts - 29.5%! Also, MIL’s center is Zaza Pachulia and so, ATL’s interior defense can protect the rim with some ease as well!

On the other end, MIL’s head coach Larry Drew will play @ATL for the first time this season and obviously, he has some motivation on his mind. I expect MIL to play w/ tight rotation tonight while he won’t allow his players to be lazy on the defensive end!

I would understand these 210-points if the Hawks were still shorthanded on the frontcourt and the Bucks had no motivation going on for this contest. This isn’t the case for tonight, and so, I’m taking the Under in here as we are dealing w/ an inflated line.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 693/694 Under 210 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 695 Los Angeles Lakers @ 696 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #3

This past Sunday I went w/ OKC-12 against the Lakers and the final outcome was a huge surprise as the Lakers not only covered the spread, but they also won straight up the game. Obviously, OKC wants to avenge that loss, they are a proud team and @ National Tv stage, they will try to crush the Lakers in the same way the Clippers did a week ago.

 Note nr. 1: That Sunday game had a super fast pace factor = 103.5! This helps to explain why the game ended w/ 224 points even though OKC has shot just 42.0% and LAL 46.9% from the field!

Russell Westbrook played completely out of control! He knew that no one in the Lakers roster could stop him in transition and forced way too many… the result was his awful stats line = 7-23 FG + 8 TO’s! OKC went just 6-16 in transition for a ridiculous 0.76 PPP!

Finally, OKC had two miserable offensive quarters and still scored 110 points…

OKC 2nd quarter = 9-27 FG 33.3%
OKC 3rd quarter = 7-21 FG 33.3%

For tonight, I expect OKC to put +30 points in every quarter because it is way too easy to score against this Lakers defense.

On the other side, the Lakers are a tough matchup for this OKC’s defense that allows way too many wide open shots on the outside.

My fair line for this contest is 230 points and therefore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 695/696 Over 227 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/13: Houston Rockets @ Chicago Bulls

Houston  at Chicago

NBA - 691 Houston Rockets @ 692 Chicago Bulls Play #1 My fair line for this contest is 196 points and due to some early line movement, we have now the proper edge to pull the trigger w/ the Over. The Bulls offense is far from being elite but they are playing quite well for some time. D.J. Augustin has been a nice surprise for them w/ his nice outside shooting ability, but the key factor has been J. Noah. His passing ability on the high post is tremendous as he reads perfectly well the game.  This is where I think that the Bulls will have some offensive edge over the Rockets IMO. HOU’s defense can be lazy especially off the ball (Harden’s struggles are well documented), and I expect the Bulls to explore this HOU’s defensive weakness. On the other side, CHI’s defense is having some problems to stop opposing quick guards so far in the season. Tony Parker really abused them in the last game and the Rockets have in Harden and Lin, two bad individual matchups for them. Howard is coming from a tough and bad game @OKC, and he will be fired up for tonight. Noah is a great defensive player but his main strength is more related into being a phenomenal “help defender”. With Howard on the court, he simply can’t provide such help and the Rockets will explore Boozer’s awful overall defense. With both teams having some key offensive edges to explore, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 691/692 Over 192.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 03/13

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 352-297-10 ATS | +101.61 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 352-297-10 ATS | +47.52 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Memphis (-4) Triple Dime LOSS

Over ORL/DEN 214 WIN

Under MIA/BKN 201 WIN

Charlotte (+6) WIN

Dallas (-4.5) WIN

San Antonio (-8) WIN

Golden State (+6.5) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from another solid 5-2 ATS overall day, but we’ve lost our Triple Dime Play w/ Memphis.

That game was “weird” to say the least… minutes before gametime, NO’s guards Eric Gordon & Tyreke Evans were declared OUT for the game, so the Pelicans were really shorthanded @ backcourt. Probably, MEM was overconfident after knowing those injuries, but it was the 2nd quarter that really killed us w/ NO “winning” the quarter 31-20 in which NO went 8-8 from the charity stripe line and held the Grizzlies to 5 total rebounds! In the 3 others quarters, MEM outscored NO 70-57. Also, special mention for Anthony Davis, because he has became a true super star in the league.

Finally, these last adjustments are paying off and we are 10-4 ATS in the last 2 days…the sample is small but our winners have been pretty easy ones and that’s a good sign for the future.

Moving on for today, we have a card of 3 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

NBA Premium Card 03/12

NBA - 607 Denver Nuggets @ 608 Orlando Magic

Play #1

Now that Ty Lawson is back and playing quite well, the Nuggets have their usual potent offense predicated in transition plays & attacking the rim while defensively, this team is really a mess!

DEN is coming from a loss against a decent defensive team like CHA is… they scored 17 fast break pts + 54 points in the paint but they couldn’t hit a three pointer to save their lives (5-24 3pts).

For tonight, I expect them to be aggressive while they won’t have any problems to score in transition and at the rim vs. ORL. ORL is now in “tank mode” and their defensive problems are well noticed -> they are allowing 16.6 fast break pts + 46.9 pts paint in L7 games!

However, I also expect ORL to have some nice edges offensively vs. DEN! First of all, N. Vucevic isn’t Al Jefferson, but I still expect him to have a decent game against the awful DEN interior defense. DEN defense is also a bad PNR defensive team and so, ORL’s backcourt unit of Nelson, Afflalo & Oladipo (he won’t receive limited minutes tonight) will have a nice matchup to be decent as well.

ORL’s pace factor as of late has been extremely fast (we have a good sample of games vs. fast tempo teams like PHI, SAS and HOU) and therefore, we can expect tonight’s game to be a pure run and gun game with less defense.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 607/608 Over 214 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 601 Brooklyn Nets @ 602 Miami Heat

Play #2

According to my numbers, the last H2H game between the Heat and the Nets was the SLOWEST paced game of the season so far and for tonight, I expect another half court battle!

MIA’s L2 games vs. CHI & WAS were incredible slow as well while BKN is also playing @slow pace!

Both teams are defending pretty well from the outside, MIA is allowing just 30.7% 3pts% in L10 games – ranked #4 in the league while BKN is allowing 33.5% - ranked #6!

Both teams are awful defensive rebounding teams but fortunately, they don’t have any real inside threat to explore those weaknesses.

The X factor of this contest will be focused on the perimeter…

We have the Heat #1 ranked PNR ball handler defense against BKN’s guards while BKN is really pressuring well the opposing ball handlers w/ an insane TO/rate since the All star break of 18.4%! They are coming from a tough but nice win vs. TOR especially because they held the Raptors to just 6-23 3pts!

With few opportunities @paint for both teams and being this contest a potential half court battle, this 201-pts line is way inflated IMO and therefore, we have some nice edge w/ Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 601/602 Under 201 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Free Premium Play 03/12: Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

Denver  at Orlando

NBA - 607 Denver Nuggets @ 608 Orlando Magic Play #1 Now that Ty Lawson is back and playing quite well, the Nuggets have their usual potent offense predicated in transition plays & attacking the rim while defensively, this team is really a mess! DEN is coming from a loss against a decent defensive team like CHA is… they scored 17 fast break pts + 54 points in the paint but they couldn’t hit a three pointer to save their lives (5-24 3pts). For tonight, I expect them to be aggressive while they won’t have any problems to score in transition and at the rim vs. ORL. ORL is now in “tank mode” and their defensive problems are well noticed -> they are allowing 16.6 fast break pts + 46.9 pts paint in L7 games! However, I also expect ORL to have some nice edges offensively vs. DEN! First of all, N. Vucevic isn’t Al Jefferson, but I still expect him to have a decent game against the awful DEN interior defense. DEN defense is also a bad PNR defensive team and so, ORL’s backcourt unit of Nelson, Afflalo & Oladipo (he won’t receive limited minutes tonight) will have a nice matchup to be decent as well. ORL’s pace factor as of late has been extremely fast (we have a good sample of games vs. fast tempo teams like PHI, SAS and HOU) and therefore, we can expect tonight’s game to be a pure run and gun game with less defense. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 607/608 Over 214 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline