NBA 03/11 Free Premium Play: Sacramento Kings @ Detroit Pistons

Sacramento  at Detroit

NBA - 553 Sacramento Kings @ 554 Detroit Pistons Play #1 It is almost impossible to predict anything from both teams let alone a game between them. Fact: Both teams simply can’t hit outside shots right now (and mostly for the season as well!)! In L10 games, DET is shooting just 31.7% - ranked #27 while SAC is shooting 30.6% - ranked #28! Basically, this game will be decided by the performance of both front court units! SAC in L2 games have faced TOR & BKN – two teams that were excellent in pressuring SAC PG’s Isaiah Thomas and did a great job in doing that has Thomas had 5-13 FG & 5/1 A&TO ratio @TOR and 3-14 FG & 4/7 A/TO ratio @BKN… w/ him being limited, SAC committed 17 & 25 TO’s! The good news is that we can expect Thomas to bounce back against the awful DET perimeter defense! SAC has been a bit better w/ defensive rebounding while offensively, Cousins is clearly more skilled than A. Drummond and I expect him to really dominate this contest while I have my fair line for this contest as being a pure 50/50 game Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 553 Sacramento Kings (+2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA Premium Card 03/10

NBA - 503 Washington Wizards @ 504 Miami Heat

Play #1 

This isn’t a good spot for the Heat that looked exhausted yesterday @CHI. It looks like D. Wade is OUT for tonight and even though the Wizards’ defense is far from being at the same level than CHI’s defense, MIA’s ball movement hasn’t been the same since LeBron has scored 61 points against the Bobcats – in the L6 games, MIA is averaging just 20 assists per game.

On the other end, the Wizards are in a roll offensively. However, they have faced some favorable matchups as of late like playing vs. ORL, PHI, UTA or MIL so they could torch those teams from the outside. MIA is allowing just 31.5% 3pts in L10 games – ranked #4 in the league! I think that WAS won’t be able to have another stellar outside shooting performance against the Heat but I do expect them to be decent vs. this Heat slow footed defense on the wings.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Washington Wizards (+7) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 509 Atlanta Hawks @ 510 Utah Jazz

Play #2

UTA returns home after an East-Coast road trip. They got crushed by the decent teams so they had an extra pressure to defeat the lowly 76ers in their last game of the road trip and because of that, UTA’s head coach didn’t rotate his team – G. Hayward played 44 minutes & Favors logged 35 minutes!

UTA’s defense has been dismal as of late…their perimeter defense is atrocious while D. Favors doesn’t look 100% healthy for me… ATL’s ball movement on the offensive end will explore all these UTA’s weaknesses!

The key question is related w/ ATL’s defense…

Well, Millsap & Antic returned to action after being injured and both started in the last game @LAC and suddenly, despite playing @b2b spot and against one of the best teams in the league, the Hawks had a true chance to send the game to OT while they were extremely competitive in that game.

With their frontcourt being “healthier”, ATL can now defend properly without sending extra help to protect the rim and therefore, I do expect them to improve a bit defensively. With a better spot for this contest, I really expect ATL to win tonight as they are the better team.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 Atlanta Hawks (-1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/08: Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers

Oklahoma City  at LA Lakers

NBA - 803 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 804 Los Angeles Lakers Play #2 The Lakers simply don’t want to play defense and by playing @ supersonic pace, they have been constantly crushed on the defensive end. In L5 games, their Def. Rtg = 123.4 – incredibly bad! They are coming from a b2b series of games vs. LAC & @DEN…they played @DEN this Friday night, so having to play at home early today isn’t a good spot at all for them. The bad news is that they will face an OKC team coming off a loss in the last game… OKC lost @PHX primarily because they couldn’t stop PHX from hitting three pointers (15-27 3pts) and this can be a problem against the Lakers in here. However, I expect OKC to be more focused in this department after losing their last game. Facing Goran Dragic and Gerald Green is way different than having to face K. Marshall and Jodie Meeks…. OKC will put some pressure in LAL’s guards especially from Westbrook vs. Marshall. The Clippers forced 22 TO’s from the Lakers and in this contest I expect a similar number of TO’s for the Lakers. In the last H2H, the Lakers were able to be competitive at home by losing the game by just 4 points. However, Russell Westbrook didn’t play the game, K. Perkins logged 17 minutes and OKC was coming from a tough win @POR while they were already thinking in the All Star Break. Today’s contest will be completely different and OKC will crush the Lakers in my opinion. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803 Oklahoma City Thunder (-11.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/08: Miami Heat @ Chicago Bulls

Miami  at Chicago

NBA - 801 Miami Heat @ 802 Chicago Bulls Play #1 The Heat played some decent defense after the All Star Break by allowing 81, 79 and 82 points in three straight games against OKC, CHI & NYK, but they regressed in L3 games by allowing 107, 106 and 111 points. Against the Bobcats, LeBron James was scoring so easily that the Heat really didn’t try to defend in that game. The same thing cannot be said in L2 games @HOU & @SAS… Against the Rockets, Howard & Jones dominated down low while Harden & Beverly were red hot on the backcourt – HOU had a perfect inside-out game. Against the Spurs, well… the Spurs offense is just killing the league right now with their precise ball movement. And here comes the Bulls today… First of all: “The Miami Heat went 45 minutes over their usual practice time to study up on defensive game film, according to a Sun Sentinel report. “We weren’t in our right spots,” Bosh said in the report. “Our defense is predicated on everyone being on the same page. We’re just not on the same page right now, one through five. Some guys are in the correct position. Some aren’t. Just our basic fundamentals, we’re not executing. We have to get back to doing that.” The Bulls are a tough team that will dominate the boards and will score some points down low, but they aren’t a threat from the outside… actually, L4 games CHI is shooting 19-67 3pts – just 28%! MIA’s biggest defensive problem in this season has been rotating w/ perimeter for the weak side, and this is something that the Bulls’ offense can’t explore against them. On the other end, MIA has lost a bit their team concept w/ LeBron James putting some “Cavaliers” numbers on the court… they are averaging just 20 assists per game in L5 games! With some subpar ball movement displayed as of late by MIA, CHI’s elite defense will make a decent job IMO while I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 03/08

NBA - 501 Utah Jazz @ 502 Philadelphia 76ers

Play #1

It was tough to lose the Over play last night w/ the Jazz as they were stuck @76 points for about 6 minutes in the fourth quarter. For tonight, I’m going again playing the Over in their contest against PHI.

This is going to be UTA’s 3rd game in 4 nights – b2b spot and the last game of their road trip, so we are dealing w/ a potential “letdown” spot for them. Nevertheless, after being spanked in L3 games, I expect them to be “fired up” for this contest.

The 76ers’ game plan is pretty easy to predict: they will as usual push the pace in every opportunity especially taking in account that they will face a “tired team”.

Now, we have to figure out the key question for tonight, can PHI score efficiently tonight?

Well, we all know that PHI really can’t shoot from the outside… their 24.0% 3pts mark in L10 games is by far the worst mark in the league! They can only score via transition and attacking the rim…

The good news is that the Jazz is a bad team protecting the rim and they are ranked #22 in transition defense. In the L3 games, UTA’s defensive rating = 137.8, 121.2 & 122.4!

Matchup wise…PHI’s best 2 offensive players Michael Carter-Williams and Thaddeus Young will have favorable matchups vs. rookie T. Burke & Marvin Williams.

On the other end, I don’t think that UTA will have any problem in scoring vs. PHI awful defense and therefore, I’m taking the Over in his contest as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Over 206.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 507 Orlando Magic @ 508 San Antonio Spurs

Play #2 & #3

Last Thursday I went with the Spurs for an easy winner, as they really crushed the Heat by 24 points!!! They are now healthy and their offensive flow has been amazing – they had 34, 26, 28, 39 and 30 assists in L5 games!

Against the Heat, not only SAS’s starters completely outplayed the Heat, but also SAS’s 2nd unit of Mills, Ginobili, Belinelli and Splitter ended the game all w/ +/- team points of + double digits points.

With such remarkable offensive momentum right now, how in the hell will the Magic slow down SAS’s offense?! Well, they won’t!

ORL will be without rookie Oladipo for tonight and their bad perimeter defense will be torched by the Spurs. In the last game vs. a tired Rockets team that was playing @b2b spot,  ORL outscored HOU 31-19 in the first quarter just to be crushed 57-82 in the remaining 3 quarters of the game.

Jameer Nelson will return tonight and while this is a good thing for ORL’s offense, Tony Parker is smiling right now and waiting for this contest.

SAS has won their L2 games by 21 and 24 points against better teams than ORL, my fair line for this contest is SAS by 20 points while I’m taking the Over as SAS offense will put another terrific show on the court.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 508 San Antonio Spurs (-16) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Over 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Premium Card 03/07

NBA - 807 Utah Jazz @ 808 New York Knicks

Play #2

In this contest we have two awful perimeter defensive teams going against each other…

UTA defense is ranked #21 vs. P&R ball handler defense & #27 vs. spot up defense! They are coming from a game in which they allowed WAS to shoot 70% at the paint for 56 pts in the paint…NYK offense is capable of some great offensive performances when facing poor perimeter defensive teams and definitely, the Jazz are one of those teams.

However, I also expect UTA offense to have some success against the Knicks. UTA’s offense badly needs their PNR game to be decent w/ their guards Burke, Hayward and Burks….fortunately for them, they will face the worst PNR BH defense in the league in the Knicks. NYK is now starting w/ Felton, JR Smith, Melo, Amare & Chandler and certainly, we can’t much defensive pressure from this lineup. My fair line for this contest is 200 points, and so, I think that we have some edge w/ the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 815 Portland Trail Blazers @ 816 Dallas Mavericks

Play #3

The Mavericks are a tough matchup for the Blazers and ultimately, the fact that they will play tonight at home against is the key factor IMO as my fair line for this contest is DAL -5/-6.

DAL’ offense is predicated to run multiple PNR’s w/ their guards and use Dirk Nowitzi in the high post. Well, POR defense is ranked #24 defending P&R Ball Handler Plays & ranked #29 in post up defense.

DAL is now 0-3 in L3 games so there is a sense of urgency for them tonight while POR is feeling maybe too much confident after their huge blowout win vs. struggling ATL.

The key factor for me is related w/ LaMarcus Aldridge… in the 2nd H2H game between these two teams, POR went to DAL and killed them w/ 127-111 mostly because LMA was unstoppable w/ 11-18 FG & 8-9 for 30 points! However, he is yet to be @100% in form after returning from an injury. He went 1-13 FG against the Hawks in the last game!!! POR won’t win a shootout against DAL without LMA @100% and I think this is going to be the case tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 816 Dallas Mavericks (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 819 Indiana Pacers @ 820 Houston Rockets

Play #4

I’ve watched this afternoon the last game of the Pacers @CHA and it was really a disaster. IND didn’t want to battle vs. CHA since the start… Offensively, they couldn’t even make their usual entry passes and almost all of their shots were perimeter ones… on the other end, Big Al simply crushed Roy Hibbert in every single play, because IND don’t send any double team, Big Al dominated the game. There is a key stat that says it all about the game: at the end of the first quarter, CHA had 16 points in the paint vs. ZERO from IND!

IND is not playing well as of late…this is going to be their 5th game in 7days and somehow, HOU would represent a similar tough matchup for IND. If D. Howard dominates Hibbert (who looks to me lacking confidence right now) down low, HOU’s offense will explode offensively.

Meanwhile, IND’s offense is once again without any confidence and rhythm w/ their perimeter shooting – they have hit 10 three pointers, but most of those 3pts’ came @ garbage time!

W/ Howard & Asik protecting the rim and w/ IND struggling to hit outside shots, I really expect HOU to be the clear winner in this contest. Somehow, this game reminds me the game SAS vs. MIA from last night and therefore, I’m taking the Rockets in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 820 Houston Rockets (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 03/07: Sacramento Kings @ Toronto Raptors

Sacramento  at Toronto

NBA -805 Sacramento Kings @ 806 Toronto Raptors Play #1 This contest is a rare case in which we have a lowly team completely motivated and focused to win @ road… obviously, we are talking about the Kings and the “Rudy Gay” situation going for tonight’s game against his former team. Having said that, actually, the Kings are a bad matchup for the Raptors! It all starts w/ D. Cousins! TOR has been an awful defensive rebounding and their interior defense has struggled against skilled big men….they’ve lost against the Bulls at home; they’ve allowed Gortat went crazy against them w/ 12-23 FG & 7-11 FT for 31 points and even in the last game, David Lee had 8-18 FG for 20 points! In the first H2H game, Cousins had 8-19 FG, 9-14 FG for 25 pts, 10 reb and even 4 assists! Also, Isaiah Thomas will be a tough matchup for K. Lowry and suddenly the Kings could be a competitive team tonight… note that they are 2-0 in L2 games so, they are feeling confident right now. TOR had plenty of days to rest for this contest so it will be quite natural that they start the game w/ some rustiness to show. I understand that they are a better team that SAC especially on the defensive end, but this current 6.5 pts spread line is way too much IMO as my fair line for this contest is TOR by 3/4 points. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Sacramento Kings (+6.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes