Daily Message 03/07

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 337-287-10 ATS | +91.81 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 337-287-10 ATS | +45.73 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

San Antonio (-3) WIN

Oklahoma City (-6) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We've split 1-1 our 2 NBA plays from last night winning w/ the Spurs and losing w/ OKC.

The Spurs confirmed last night that they are really playing @ high level and are a clear legit contender in the West. Their record vs. elite teams so far this season has been subpar but now that they are 100% healthy, it will be interesting to watch them in these "premium" games.

On the other game, OKC was in control until the Suns went in a 21-2 run @ end of 3rd quarter.  OKC head coach Scott Brooks decided to go small probably way too soon… w/ Perry Jones & Adams on the court, OKC outscored the Suns by 13 and 12 points. With Westbrook on the court, OKC outscored PHX by 16 points…. With Dragic on the court, PHX was outscored by 14 points and still PHX won the game! OKC awful perimeter defense was the main culprit of the loss - Opponents have hit at least 10 three pointers on the Thunder in five of the past seven games!

Moving on for today, as usual we have a usual big card to work w/ 11 games on the board so let's do it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 03/06

NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 San Antonio Spurs

Play #1

The Spurs might have some revenge in their minds for this contest after losing the first H2H game @MIA in January and obviously losing @ NBA Finals from last season, but IMO the real X factor will be related w/ MIA defense vs. SAS offense.

I’ve watched this afternoon SAS’s last game @CLE and it was really unbelievable the way the Spurs’ shared the ball – they had a total of 39 assists w/ every single player having at least one assist!

SAS’s starting lineup is more “defensive” oriented but once Popovich started doing his rotations, the Spurs 2nd unit completely dominated the game. They played fast and they played w/ a remarkable offensive flow. This will be a real problem for the Heat defense that is far from being an elite defensive team especially in the “weak side”. It’s a fact that MIA’s defense has improved since the All Star Break but they did have a “favorable” schedule: OKC was off sync w/ Westbrook back in the lineup; CHI doesn’t have a strong perimeter offense; NYK had Felton and Prigioni in the backcourt; ORL & CHA are ranked #24 and #17 in 3pts% this season. Only HOU is a dangerous perimeter offensive team and they were decent w/ 8-23 3pts against MIA.

SAS will explore MIA’s late defensive rotations to torch them from the outside…we are talking about a Spurs’ team that is averaging 32 assists per game in L4 games!

On the other end, LeBron James is just amazing but there is a concerning trend about the Heat lately: unlike the Spurs, MIA’s ball movement has been more stagnant as James is “dominating” more the ball – MIA’s L4 game logs assists = 18, 20, 18 and 19 assists!

In the first H2H between these two teams, MIA crushed the Spurs using some sharp ball movement to hit 8-19 3pts & dishing 28 assists! However, note that Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and Tiago Splitter didn't play for San Antonio because of injuries.

Now that SAS have their best defensive perimeter players back, they can now put more focus in stopping LeBron James…

We have the “revenge” spot working favorably for us in here as well, so I really think that SAS will win this contest as their “team concept” unit will prevail over MIA’s individual prowerness.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 502 San Antonio Spurs (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA - 503 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 504 Phoenix Suns

Play #2

Yep, OKC is back! After losing three straight games, OKC has won their last 3 games and they will face the Suns @ perfect time.

We should forget OKC’s last game vs. PHI because, well…it was against PHI.

In the 2 previous contests against CHA & MEM, OKC had some “natural” problems to stop opposing centers as rookie Adams is still a work in progress. Marc Gasol had 7-10 FG while Al Jefferson torched OKC for 10-16 FG & 25 points.

However, I was impressed w/ OKC’s defensive performance @ perimeter especially against PG’s – Conley finished the game w/ 1-10 FG while Kemba Walker was held to 3-13 FG.

This is extremely important for tonight because:

1)      PHX really don’t have any capable post player…actually their starting center Miles Plumlee is OUT for tonight and so, Alex Len will start for PHX and we are dealing w/ an extremely “raw” offensive player

2)      PHX’s best player Goran Dragic plays @PG, so this good recent trend of OKC vs. PG’s is a good sign for tonight.

In order to slow down PHX’s offense, teams should be ready to run back and prevent PHX to score in transition and OKC’s knows this:

 “When we sprint back, we have to match up to their 3-point shooters,” Brooks said. “If you sprint back to the lane, you’re going to be 20 feet from their shooters. You have to sprint back with the purpose of stopping them from taking 3s. We definitely have to stop the ball because Goran (Dragic) is one of the best at attacking it and finding gaps. He’s an aggressive player and he’s having a great year.”

On the other end, PHX will be forced to play small ball because they don’t have the proper personnel to play “big”, so OKC can play Durant @PF. After some games where OKC offense looked off sync, OKC is now back in track…they scored 113 points vs. MEM & 116 points vs. CHA – 2 decent defensive teams!

PHX defensive ratings in L6 games = awful 117.6! In that stretch, they are allowing 49 points in the paint & 16.8 fast break points per games!

While OKC is ready to play in another level, PHX is primed to have a natural letdown for the near future unless E. Bledsoe returns @ high level.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503 Oklahoma City Thunder (-6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Daily Message 03/06

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 336-286-10 ATS | +92.11 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 336-286-10 ATS | +45.83 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Previous Reg. Seasons Records Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Indiana (-5) LOSS

Under CHA/IND 191 LOSS

Memphis (-2) LOSS

Utah (+8) LOSS

Dallas (-4.5) LOSS

Daily Message: 

Short words for today:

"It's a marathon, not a sprint"

For today I've have released 2 plays, I'm working right now to prepare tomorrow's card, good luck to all!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

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NBA Premium Card 03/05

NBA - 701 Indiana Pacers @ 702 Charlotte Bobcats

Play #1 & #2

The Bobcats will play tonight their 4th straight game against elite teams... they have played @SAS, @OKC & @MIA. They ended up losing all those games by double digits points and going for tonight’s contest, I don’t think they will be able to hang around against the Pacers.

CHA has been decent offensively mostly because Al Jefferson has been playing in “god like” mode. He completely destroyed the Heat down low w/ 18-24 FG for 38 points and he was great against OKC as well w/ 10-16 FG for 25 points. However, “Big Al” had pretty favorable matchups in those games: 1) the Heat didn’t have any “big” player capable of slowing down unless Chris Andersen while 2) OKC without Perkins had rookie Adams as their starting center, and so Al Jefferson torched both teams…

That will change tonight because Al Jefferson will have to face one of the best defensive centers in the league in Roy Hibbert. With Big Al limited, CHA’s offense will struggle heavily… note that G. Henderson is OUT for tonight… CHA’s perimeter talent is limited and IND will be focused in stopping Kemba Walker + Al Jefferson.

This is a b2b spot for IND… they tend to struggle in those spots but fortunately for us, they are coming from a loss last night vs. GSW and the Pacers really perform well after losing one game: 9-3-1 ATS after losing this season.

I expect IND to bounce back tonight using primarily their stingy defense vs. CHA that right now depends way too much on Al Jefferson to be competitive.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Indiana Pacers (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 705 Utah Jazz @ 706 Washington Wizards

Play #3

UTA is the typical lowly team that is capable to be competitive against good teams but when involved in bad spots, they usual show a complete lack of effort. That was what happened w/ them in L2 games as after being a competitive dog @IND, they were crushed by the Bucks in the following night! I had a play w/ MIL in that game and it was really a no-show from UTA.

The good news is that I expect them to be focused in bouncing back tonight… they will face a Wizards’ team that is coming from a loss vs. MEM.

Nene Hilario is really a key piece for them and sooner or later, his absence will start to be “noticed”. This is a game where Nene would destroy Marvin Williams down low…but again…he’s OUT!

UTA’s PNR game could be a problem against a Wizards’ team that tends to be lazy on the defensive end vs. lowly teams. My fair line for this contest is WAS-5 points and so, I’ taking the Jazz in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 705 Utah Jazz (+8) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 707 Memphis Grizzlies @ 708 Brooklyn Nets

Play #4

BKN was able to defeat the Bulls in the last game mostly via creating TO’s... note that their FG% was about the same as CHI and obviously, CHI completely outrebounded them by having 57% reb/rate%! BKN took advantage of CHI’s awful physical spot while the Bulls really couldn’t explore the matchup between Boozer vs. P. Pierce.

With Pierce being the “PF” of this Nets starting lineup, it will be fun to watch him trying to guard Zach Randolph…good luck with that!

MEM is one of the best teams in the league right now…Conley is coming from b2b solid performances - looking 100% healthy to me! The huge edge that MEM will have on the glass & down low (they scored 62 points in the paint against WAS in the last game) will be too much IMO for this Nets team and therefore, I’m taking MEM in here as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 717 Dallas Mavericks @ 718 Denver Nuggets

Play #5

I went against DEN in their last game vs. MIN and it was tough to watch us losing the play because DEN hit 4 3pointers in the last minute in a game where their awful defense was completely exposed by MIN’s offense.

Well, I expect the same thing for tonight as DAL’ fluid offense will be way too much for this Nuggets undisciplined defense. DEN P&R Ball Handler defense is ranked #28 in the league and so, we can expect DAL to run PNR after PNR against them!

DAL’s defensive problems as of late are related especially w/ perimeter but the good news is that DEN is really struggling to hit from the outside right now. DEN is 2-0 vs. DAL in the first 2 H2H games but those 2 games were played in November….right now, DAL is way better team than DEN!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 717 Dallas Mavericks (-4.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 03/05: Memphis Grizzlies @ Brooklyn Nets

Memphis  at Brooklyn

NBA - 707 Memphis Grizzlies @ 708 Brooklyn Nets ***FREE Premium Play*** BKN was able to defeat the Bulls in the last game mostly via creating TO’s... note that their FG% was about the same as CHI and obviously, CHI completely outrebounded them by having 57% reb/rate%! BKN took advantage of CHI’s awful physical spot while the Bulls really couldn’t explore the matchup between Boozer vs. P. Pierce. With Pierce being the “PF” of this Nets starting lineup, it will be fun to watch him trying to guard Zach Randolph…good luck with that! MEM is one of the best teams in the league right now…Conley is coming from b2b solid performances - looking 100% healthy to me! The huge edge that MEM will have on the glass & down low (they scored 62 points in the paint against WAS in the last game) will be too much IMO for this Nets team and therefore, I’m taking MEM in here as my Single Dime Play. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Memphis Grizzlies (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 03/05

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 336-281-10 ATS | +108.61 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 336-281-10 ATS | +51.33 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Pass

Daily Message: 

I've decided to take the "day off" yesterday in terms of not releasing any plays, but I've spent the entire day watching some games and doing some adjustments in certain teams that will help us in the near future. So for today we are back in track w/ our regular stuff…

I was curious to watch the Rockets vs. Heat last night, b/c I've mentioned before that the Rockets are forming into a legit contender in the Western Conference. Obviously, we should understand that MIA was playing @b2b spot vs. rested HOU team so this was a key factor for HOU.

Nevertheless, HOU showed why they are an elite team right now w/ a concerted effort from all their starters - all of them ended up scoring double digits points. The development of Terrence Jones will be huge for them and he looked great last night w/ 8-13 FG for 19 points & 12 rebounds. The X factor of yesterday's game was the MIA's inability to hit 3pts from the starting lineup -> combined 0-12 3pts! Most of those MIA misses ended up being HOU's transition chances on the other end of the floor.

Moving on for today, we have a big card of 10 games to work, so let's do it! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day! NOTE: Final Update will be released no later @6:15 PM EST!

Follow Andre Gomes on Twitter

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NBA Premium Card 03/03

NBA - 701 Memphis Grizzlies @ 702 Washington Wizards

Play #2

NOTE: no detailed write up for today, they will back tomorrow, thanks

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701 Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker