Daily Message 02/22

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 319-259-9 ATS | +135.81 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 319-259-9 ATS | +64.13 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Detroit (-3.5) Triple Dime WIN

Over ORL/NYK 195 Double Dime WIN

Under TOR/CLE 196 WIN

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a nice 3-0 SWEEP in which we won our Triple Dime Play w/ Detroit and our Double Dime Play w/ Over ORL/NYK. It was nice to finally see our Totals Plays cashing w/ some ease after such a bad run where we really didn't have a chance in winning those Total Plays.

Our Triple Dime Play w/ DET didn't start well as the Pistons were trailing by 11 points at the break, but their size edge on the front was so obvious that they just killed the Hawks in the second half. DET ended the game w/ 53.4% reb/rate%, 66 points in the paint while Monroe & Drummond combined to shoot 20-28 FG - a 71% mark! That was exactly why I had Detroit last night as my Best Play!

We are already generating some profit for this second half of season and I'm looking forward to keep pounding the books, as usual… "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! So we just can't freak out after a couple of bad days, or I won't be gloating myself of how great I am after sweeping the board last night…

Moving on for today, we have a card of 8 games to work and I've already spotted a couple of games where we could have TOP PLAYS! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/21

NBA - 807 New York Knicks @ 808 Orlando Magic

Play #1

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

The matchup between these two teams is prone to be a high scoring game…

ORL has been healthy lately and obviously, their competitiveness has improved as well. Offensively, they are having some problems to be efficient but note that they have faced IND twice, OKC and MEM in L7 games so, it’s easy to understand their struggles vs. some of the best defensive teams in the league.

In the last game @CLE, ORL struggled as well on the offensive end by shooting just 39.3% from the field but w/ almost all their starters involved in trade rumors, the team clearly was not focused going for that game.

That will change tonight…. ORL’s offense is based in PNR’s while they need their guards to be productive and tonight, they will face Felton + Prigioni + JR Smith + Carmelo Anthony…enough said! NYK defense is ranked dead last in the league in defending PNR’s ball handler plays, so we have a good spot for ORL offense to be decent tonight.

On the other side, I expect NYK’s offense to torch this ORL defense that is predicated to be a decent defensive team near the basket but struggles vs. perimeter – ORL is allowing 38.1% 3pts in L10 games -> ranked #26 in the league!

My fair line for this contest is 200/202 points and so, we have the proper edge to make a play w/ Over as my Double Dime Play!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 807/808 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 803 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 804 Toronto Raptors

Play #2

Even though most of their wins were against lowly teams, CLE is playing better especially due to an overall improvement of their defense. There are two key areas in which CLE clearly improved: spot up & transition: 1) CLE is allowing just 24.3% 3pts% in L5 games and 2) they are allowing just 9.8 fast break pts per game in L5 games after allowing 19.4 FB/pts per game in the previous 5 games!

Offensively, they continue to rely heavily on K. Irving especially now that D. Waiters is OUT due to an injury. For tonight, CLE will face the #4 ranked defensive team in league defending PNR’s ball handler plays, so I expect CLE to have some problems offensively against the Raptors.

TOR is coming from a subpar defensive effort vs. CHI in the last game. It was a b2b game for them and clearly they were not ready to face such physical frontcourt like the Bulls have. CHI scored 16 pts in the paint in the first quarter vs. 18 in the next 3 quarters! TOR’s coach made the wrong decision to start P. Patterson instead of Amir Johnson and TOR’s defense was awful in the beginning of the game. That won’t happen tonight as Johnson was already confirmed @starting lineup.

With TOR primed for a defensive bounce back & CLE’s improved defense, I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 803/804 Under 196 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

NBA - 809 Atlanta Hawks @ 810 Detroit Pistons

Play #3

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Yes, I really hate the way this Pistons team don’t have the proper IQ to be a decent team but in this particular matchup, I really like them to beat the Hawks w/ some ease.

Unfortunately for them, ATL is completely banged up…. I don’t need to talk about their frontcourt as when Elton Brand is forced to play +30 minutes in 2014, it says it all… ATL has been completely outrebounded by their opponents lately – just 46% reb/rate in L10 games% while their opponents are scoring easy points on them in multiple ways.

ATL was able to be competitive because they had a good offensive flow based on their perimeter but unfortunately, they are struggling in this department lately and obviously, they just can’t win games! To make things even worse, Jeff Teague is banged up and he might miss tonight’s game!

ATL is 2-0 this season against DET and Teague was the KEY player in both matchups: he had 8-14 FG 18 pts + 7 assists in the 1st game and 7-17 FG, 18 pts, 9 assists and 6 rebounds in the second game. DET defense is terrible on the perimeter but w/ ATL being so banged up and struggling in here, I expect DET to be “OK” in here.

The biggest factor will be related w/ the HUGE size edge for DET w/ their frontcourt! ATL have only Millsap + Brand + Scott on the frontcourt and I expect frontcourt to completely dominate this contest and that’s why I’m taking DET in here as my Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 810 Detroit Pistons (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Daily Message 02/21

Daily Message 02/21:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 316-259-9 ATS | +123.81 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 316-259-9 ATS | +55.13 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Milwaukee (+5) LOSS

Under OKC/MIA First Half 105.5 WIN

Houston (-1) LOSS

Daily Message: 

We are coming from a subpar day in which we went 1-2 ATS in our Plays. Because there were only 3 games on the card, I was able to watch all of them, so here’s a review of them:

The key factor for my play w/ MIL was the potential individual edge that B. Knight would have against DEN’s guards… Well, 20 minutes before the game, it was announced that Knight wouldn’t play the game due to an injury and the Bucks started w/ Wolters & Butler on the backcourt. Naturally, the Bucks had some tremendous problems w/ their ball movement and ended the game w/ just 15 assists while DEN easily won the game.

Once I knew that K. Perkins would start and Russell Westbrook was listed as probable for the game vs. MIA, I really didn't have any doubt that the “Under” was the right play in this contest. It was clear for me that OKC’s offensive flow would suffer a bit w/ the presence of Westbrook on the court and man…they really struggle! There were some moments were literally OKC didn’t move the ball... they just went directly for 1*1 plays using Durant or Westbrook.

On the last game of the day, we’ve lost w/ HOU that had a good chance to win the game in regulation, but they allowed S. Curry to tie the game in an awesome penetration move vs. D. Howard. The Rockets with Dwight Howard completely dominated the glass w/ 55.5% rebound rate% as expected. The problem was that Howard despite having 21 rebounds & 4 blocks struggled on the offensive w/ just 4-13 FG.

Moving on for today, we have a big card of 10 games to work, so let's do it! I’ve already a good spot for us – Game of the Week Triple Dime Play! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/20

NBA - 501 Miami Heat @ 502 Oklahoma City Thunder

Play #1

I think that we have some value w/ Under in this contest, but I rather prefer play the Under @ First Half as I expect the game to start slow due to some key factors.

The first h2h game between these two teams ended up w/ 207 points but the game was a “slow paced” affair w/ both teams being extremely efficient on the offensive end: OKC had 51.3% FG while MIA had 51.4% FG.

For tonight, I also expect the game to be a relatively slow paced game, so we need to figure out both teams’ offensive efficiency…

Why I like the Under @ First Half?!

It is confirmed that K. Perkins will start for OKC and he is completely worthless for the team…in the first h2h game, OKC scored just 2 points in the first 6 minutes of the game w/ him on the court vs. 110 points in the remaining 42 minutes.

Russell Westbrook is back! Westbrook will start tonight and we all know him… not only he will be “rusty”, but also, he will rush things a bit on the offensive end. This can be problematic for OKC offense because MIA defense is just awesome pressuring the opp. ball handlers!

OKC’s head coach Scott Brooks didn’t play Perkins in the second half of the last H2H game and OKC’s exploded in the third quarter w/ 36 points. This might happen tonight if OKC keeps struggling w/ Perkins on the court….meanwhile I expect Westbrook to be better in the second half as well – all things considered, OKC will tend to be “better” in the second half on the offensive end.

MIA is coming from a monster offensive game @DAL by scoring 117 points. OKC’s defense is in another level vs. DAL defense and so, I expect OKC defense to be decent in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under FIRST HALF 105.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/20: Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks

Denver  at Milwaukee

NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Milwaukee Bucks Play #3 Yes, MIL is the worst team in the league but they are playing better as of late as their head coach Larry Drew has figured out some rotations, like playing rookie PG Wolters alongside w/ B. Knight; giving more minutes to J. Henson or playing K. Middleton @SF and not on the backcourt. The key factor for this contest is clearly related with the Denver Nuggets… Ty Lawson remains injured and will miss tonight’s game… not only he is BY FAR the Nuggets best player but also, DEN simply don’t have any real backups for him. I went against them in their last game vs. PHX saying the following: “In the L2 games prior to the All Star Break, DEN had awful Off. RTG of 87.3 & 93.0 while having just 17 and 19 assists. When their “Point Guard” right now is R. Foye (who is averaging just 3.0 assists per game this season), then it’s easy to understand why DEN is/will struggle this much without Lawson.” Well, DEN finished the game shooting 38.4% FG, shooting just 5-28 behind the line and had only 17 assists! Randy Foye isn’t a Point Guard and for this contest I really expect B. Knight to excel against the Nuggets’ poor backcourt defense. In the first h2h game between these two teams, DEN won the game by 10 points w/ 1) B. Knight having a terrible game w/ 4-17 FG and 2) Ty Lawson despite shooting just 6-14 FG, he had 7 rebounds and… 13 of the 22 team assists! DEN is lacking some confidence and most importantly, they aren’t play well and this current line DEN-5 is just too much for them as my fair line is DEN-1. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Milwaukee Bucks (+5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

Daily Message 02/20

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 315-257-9 ATS | +127.41 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 315-257-9 ATS | +59.33 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Washington (+1.5) WIN

Under ATL/WAS 203.5 LOSS

Under CHA/DET 201 LOSS

New Orleans (-3.5) LOSS

Golden State (-4.5) WIN

Houston (-8) WIN

Under POR/SAS 210 LOSS

Daily Message:

We are coming from a subpar 3-4 ATS card highlighted by the fact that we've lost all 3 of our Total Plays. For some reason, we are struggling w/ Total Plays after crushing the books last season using the exact same "method".

The only possible way for me is to keep adjusting because eventually, we will start cashing these Total Plays.

For tonight we have 3 games to work - 2 TNT games and I've released two plays for those 2 Primetime games, we might have one more play - working on it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/19

NBA - 707 Washington Wizards @ 708 Atlanta Hawks

Play #1 & #3

Both teams are coming from clear losses on their yesterday’s games and they are struggling a bit to be competitive as of late.

However the biggest difference is that (unfortunately) ATL is completely banged up right now and I really don’t think they will be able to hang around against a healthy WAS team because otherwise, this current line was perfect IMO.

ATL’s frontcourt will be without Horford, Antic & Ayon for tonight, so basically they’ll have Millsap, an “old” E. Brand that was forced to play 30 minutes last night vs. powerful IND’s frontcourt and also Mike Scott.

ATL’s best perimeter defensive player D. Carroll must likely is OUT for tonight and Lou Williams has been limited @b2b games. With all these injuries, ATL’s offense has been regressing pretty hard lately while their defense and rebounding has been subpar all season long.

The Wizards were awful defensively last night vs. TOR as the Raptors torched them on PNR’s using their aggressive guards & big men rolling to the basket – something that ATL right now don’t have the right personnel to explore this WAS’s weakness and so, I’m taking the Wizards in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Washington Wizards (+1.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

*ADDED PLAY*

NOTE: two teams struggling w/ their confidence & in b2b spots, this totals is inflated IMO as my fair line = 200 points.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 203.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker