Daily Message 02/19

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 312-253-9 ATS | +131.61 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 312-253-9 ATS | +60.73 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

New York (+5.5) WIN

Miami (-2) WIN

Phoenix (-2) WIN

LA Clippers (-6) LOSS

Daily Message:

We started the second half season w/ the "right foot" as we ended the night w/ 3-1 ATS in our plays. I've decided to have a "conservative" approach yesterday, especially involving two Eastern Conference teams. Actually, we didn't have any play in such scenario. I've been watching/reviewing those games early on the day in order to have a better "feeling" of them going forward.

We have 11 games to work for today, so I won't waste more time w/ today's Daily Message…just let's do it! Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/18

NBA - 513 Miami Heat @ 514 Dallas Mavericks

Play #2

MIA defense has been a subpar unit for quite some time but IMO they will be a tough matchup for DAL’s offense tonight…

DAL is a mediocre offensive rebounding team (ranked #23 w/ 23.4% Offensive Rebounding%) and their frontcourt is far from being labeled “powerful”, so MIA’s biggest weakness won’t be explored in here.

DAL offense has been great all season long…their “bread & butter” offensive play(s) has been Pick n’ Roll’s  w/ more than 31% of volume% where they are super efficient. The bad news for them is that MIA defense is ranked #1 in defending Pick n Rolls this season, and so I expect MIA to put some extra pressure on DAL’s ball handler’s and create some TO’s.

DAL defense hasn’t been capable of slowing down the best offensive teams in the league and certainly, the Heat is one of them. LeBron James will simply torch them w/ his passing & shooting ability.

With MIA’s defense being decent in this contest, I expect them to win tonight’s game because DAL won’t be able to slow down MIA’s offense.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Miami Heat (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/18: New York Knicks @ Memphis Grizzlies

New York  at Memphis

NBA - 509 New York Knicks @ 510 Memphis Grizzlies ***FREE Premium Play*** I expect the Knicks to be extremely competitive tonight... note that they are not better than the Grizzlies, but they match up well vs. MEM and especially, I think that MEM’s won’t be sharp in this spot. Marc Gasol is not 100% healthy… you just need to watch some MEM’s games as of late to watch him being slow @ everything. Yes, his presence down low is still a major factor but against a jump shooting team like NYK is, I don’t expect him to offer much value to his team. Mike Conley returns to action after some time being injured…it’s the second time that Conley has been injured this season and in the first one, Conley struggled a bit in the first games after being healthy, so I expect him to be “rusty” tonight. Now that Tyson Chandler has been decent on the defensive end, I expect him to protect the rim vs. MEM frontcourt. The X factor of this contest is related w/ MEM defense vs. NYK offense… MEM defense has been struggling on the perimeter as they are predicated to “protect the basket” and so, NYK’s outside shooting can cause some serious problems to MEM’s defense and this contest will be a close one. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509 New York Knicks (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA 2nd Half Season Message 02/18

Daily Message 02/12:

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 309-252-9 ATS | +125.91 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 309-252-9 ATS | +58.83 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

Daily Message:

The NBA's second half of season kicks out today and I'm looking forward to keep doing my usual work in this sport. I've been telling that the season is "a marathon and not a sprint" because it really is: we've started the season on the wrong way with some big negative units to show on my season record, but then, we've bounced back strong w/ some insane numbers just to have a bit of a letdown in the last week before the All Star Break. We should not freak out when things are bad, or just become lazy when we are "hitting" everything, we just should "trust" in our skills and keep adjusting throughout the season, because eventually, all the hard work will pay off.

With almost one week without any "serious" NBA stuff to work, I've decided to simply "shutdown" my mind these days, recharge some batteries and getting ready to attack the next 4 months that we still have left to cash w/ the NBA.

For today we have a card of 9 games to work, so let's do it! ONCE AGAIN, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 02/13

 NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Chicago Bulls

Play #1

My fair line for this contest is a pure 50/50 game, so we should be dealing with a PK line instead of the Bulls being favored by 3/4 points.

The biggest problem for me is related w/ BKN’s physical spot, as their key players aren’t young and playing b2b games w/ the second game being @CHI isn’t exactly a good spot.

Fortunately for them, BKN’s bench has been superb lately with an incredible depth and all players are confident and ready to contribute. Last night, they were able to defeat CHA 105-89 and no player played more than 28 minutes, while Jason Kidd played 12 (!!!) players! Kevin Garnett logged just 15 minutes so it was pretty clear that the Nets were thinking in advance in tonight’s contest.

These two teams don’t like each other… CHI defeated the Nets in the playoffs winning the game 7 @BKN and already in this season, CHI humiliated the Nets in the Christmas’ day by crushing them 95-78.

However, things have changed and the Nets are playing pretty well right now. In that game, CHI’s bench was a major factor for their win as Gibson, Augustin & Snell combined to shoot 15-28 FG for 37 points, 16 rebounds & 7 assists while BKN’s bench was just awful – note that P. Pierce (he was a backup then) and Blatche combined to shoot 2-19 FG! For tonight I expect the roles to be reversed and the Nets bench to have some edge over CHI's 2nd unit.

CHI’s frontcourt unit of Noah & Gibson has been playing well… looks like Boozer will return tonight and this is IMO good news for… the Nets! They might dominate BKN’s starting frontcourt unit but the Nets have some great depth on the bench in this area w/ Teletovic, Plumlee, Blatche and Kirilenko and so, I expect BKN to be competitive especially by their tremendous edge w/ 2nd unit.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501 Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada

NBA Premium Card 02/12

NBA - 725 Portland Trail Blazers @ 726 Los Angeles Clippers

Play #1

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

We are dealing with two teams w/ almost similar records (LAC 36-18 & POR 36-16) and so, this LAC-8.5/-9 line sounds “weird”, right?!

Well, I have to say that I had this play on my mind since I’ve saw the Blazers having tremendous problems to defeat a MIN team playing without K. Love, K. Martin and N. Pekovic this past Saturday! POR is banged up both physically and "mentally" and having to face a rested LAC tonight after playing a tight game vs. OKC last night will be too much for them...

I know that POR has been a jump shooting team all season long but lately, they simply can’t score near the basket… In L4 games, they have scored just 20, 24, 28 and 38 points in the paint! It’s hard to win ball games almost exclusively from long range jumpers, especially if you are tired and this has been the case for the Blazers lately…

You just need to watch last night’s 4th quarter to understand how 1) POR was tired in the final quarter & 2) they are attempting ONLY long range jumpers, here’s a sample play-by-play from POR midway the 4th quarter:

9:48                     80-84    Wesley Matthews misses 25-foot three point jumper

9:38                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper

9:11                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 21-foot jumper

8:17                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 26-foot three point jumper

8:11                     80-84    C.J. McCollum misses 9-foot Running Jumper

8:02                     80-84    Wesley Matthews misses 23-foot three point jumper

7:15                     87-84    LaMarcus Aldridge misses 19-foot jumper

L. Aldrige is banged up and struggling a bit lately and tonight he will face B. Griffin that is simply dominating the game right now.

However, the X factor for this contest is related w/ LAC offense vs. POR defense.

As good as D. Lillard has been offensively, his defense has been incredibly bad!! Just look for opp. PG’s against POR lately:

George Hill 12-19 FG, 11-12 FT for 37 points & 8 assists
Ricky Rubio (!!!) 8-19 FG, 2-4 3pts, 7-8 FT for 25 points & 9 assists

Last night, Reggie Jackson went scoreless in the first half w/ 0-6 FG, but he was THE REASON (with Durant obviously) why OKC rallied back and won the game as he finished the 2nd half w/ 7-13 FG, for 17 points and 4 assists!

Well, there is guy called Chris Paul and he’s healthy now and ready to destroy POR’s ranked #26 P&R ball handler defense, while POR awful interior defense will be torched by Griffin & DeAndre Jordan.

Last night, POR’s best backup defensive interior player J. Freeland got injured (and will miss this contest) and Robin Lopez was “forced” to play major minutes. POR don’t have any decent interior defensive solution on the bench and so, I expect LAC to have some great edges down low tonight.

POR won the first h2h game (a game where they were rested +3days off vs. LAC team playing b2b games, a day after Christmas day), so LAC knows the importance of winning tonight’s contest for a potential playoff home court edge going forward. The correlation of all the factors mentioned before makes me playing the Los Angeles Clippers as my Triple Dime Play.

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 726 Los Angeles Clippers (-8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA Free Premium Play 02/12: Miami Heat @ Golden State Warriors

Miami  at Golden State

NBA - 723 Miami Heat @ 724 Golden State Warriors ***FREE Premium Play*** It was interesting for me to watch MIA control the tempo of the game last night vs. PHX. I was expecting a fast paced contest, as this is usually the style that PHX wants to play especially at home, but the game had “only” pace factor = 89.6! Note that PHX’s pace factor for the season is 94.35 so you can “see” the difference. Their previous game @UTA had pace factor = 81.4 so this is IMO an obvious trend: MIA wants to slow down a bit the tempo of the game, and not enter in “track meats” vs. their opponents. Being this contest a b2b game, there is no reason to think otherwise for tonight… I had MIA-3 last night vs. PHX w/ the X factor being: “OK… MIA has by far the best P&R defense in the league and this is super important vs. PHX team that has Goran Dragic as their primary ball handler! MIA’s biggest defensive weakness has been their “inability” to make the proper defensive rotations on the weak side and teams w/ great ball moment are torching them from the outside. I don’t think that PHX offense has such “good ball movement” that will be able to cause some serious problems to MIA defense – note that in L5 games, PHX is averaging just 16 assists per game! “ Well, GSW is somehow a similar team as PHX as their primary scoring source is on the perimeter and their ball movement is quite subpar – they are averaging just 19.8 assists per game in L5 games! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 723/724 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline