NBA Premium Play 02/02

NBA - 801 Orlando Magic @ 802 Boston Celtics

Play #1

Even though we are dealing w/ two lowly teams, I really think the Celtics will win this contest with some ease.

They are coming from a tough last second loss vs. PHI in their last game (I had a play w/ PHI+4) and it was clear for me that they really wanted to win and played hard.

The biggest reason for this recent slump has been their shorthanded backcourt as J. Crawford was traded for GSW, A. Bradley has been injured and R. Rondo is still trying to find the best rhythm…

The good news for today is that A. Bradley is back from an injury and it looks like R. Rondo can play +30 minutes… these two players are actually a good combo and to make things even better for BOS, ORL’s PG J. Nelson will miss today’s game and so, I expect BOS good ball pressure defense to create a good number of TO’s.

ORL easily crushed the awful Bucks in the last game… In order to be competitive, they need their backcourt (usually Nelson + Afflalo + Oladipo) to be efficient on the offensive end, something that I won’t expect this to happen in this matchup without Nelson, and therefore, I’m taking the Celtics as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Boston Celtics (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NFL Super Bowl Play 02/02

NFL Super Bowl - 101 Seattle Seahawks @ 102 Denver Broncos

Play #1

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

My side fair line for this contest is DEN-3 so we really don’t have any significant edge in this market and I've decided to pass w/ Sides. The same thing cannot be said about the Totals because I really think we are getting some great value w/ Under.

The narrative for this Super Bowl actually it’s quite easy to understand it: DEN has the best offense in the league vs. SEA phenomenal defense (one of the best defenses in the history of the league).

The X factor for this contest in my opinion = TEMPO of the game that will favors a low scoring game!

Let me explain it…

DEN has changed their approach for this postseason…they are now a "controlling-offensive" team as their primary mindset is to keep and manage the ball possession using their awesome offensive diversity. They know they don't have the same weapons on the defensive side of the ball so they are trying to maximize the time w/ their offense.

Just check this out:

NFL Regular Season Rankings Average Time of Possession:

DEN ranked #16 w/ 30:01

However, in the 2 games of this season postseason:

35:27 vs. SD (that was #1 ranked team in this stat)

35:44 vs. NE

The perfect example was the 2 TD’s scored vs. NE in which both scoring drives lasted +7min w/ 10 and 13 plays! Having said that, it isn't going to be easy to score vs. this SEA defense that was ranking #1 BY FAR in passing defense w/ -34.3% DVOA.

On the other side, DEN defense is banged up especially w/ their secondary unit. However, SEA offense is a run-oriented unit w/ Pass/Rush ratio of 45%/55%, and I expect them to be conservative in this contest while riding their RB M. Lynch. However, DEN is actually a pretty underrated run defensive team by being ranked #9 during the regular season (#9 w/ -14.4%).

Already in the 2 playoffs games, they held SD to just 65 rushing yds for 3.6 yds/car, and in the last game vs. potent NE rushing offense that ran for 234 rushing yds vs. IND, DEN held NE to just 64 rushing yds!

I expect this contest to be played @slow tempo due to the mindset of both teams. DEN defense won’t be explored on their biggest weakness while DEN offense will keep their game plan while they are yet to face such tremendous defensive team like SEA is and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Triple Dime Play!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 101/102 Under 48.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline

Daily Message 02/02

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 284-231-7 ATS | +116.56 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 284-231-7 ATS | +53.18 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NFL 2013 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under IND/BKN 190.5 LOSS

Washington (+5.5) WIN

Chicago ML LOSS

Detroit (-8.5) WIN

Miami (-5) WIN

Under SAS/SAC 205 WIN

Over POR/TOR 205.5 WIN

Daily Message:

It wasn't a sweep but we are coming from another terrific overall day in which we went 5-2 ATS in our plays. Actually, we should easily went 6-1 ATS but we had a truly bad beat w/ Under IND/BKN w/ a three pointer being scored w/ 0.04 seconds to go…that's the NBA folks, nothing to complain about it.

We are literally crushing the books right now in the NBA: 5-0 ATS SWEEP this Tuesday, 6-1 ATS this Wednesday, 3-1 ATS this Thursday, we SWEPT the board 5-0 ATS this Friday, and last night we went 5-2 ATS to put us 24-4 ATS in the last 5 days.

Short term "trends" are always exciting but IMO we should look more for the long term, and the fact is that we are hitting 60% ATS in L297 NBA Plays - it's a pretty LARGE sample! A $100 Bettor would be UP $6930 during this stretch!

With this great day, obviously we've established a NEW "profit high" for the current NBA season: +116.56 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +53.18 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

NFL SUPER BOWL: NBA is my main FORTE but we are enjoying a tremendous successful NFL season as well by hitting 57% ATS in ALL NFL Plays! In the Playoffs, we are 6-2-1 ATS and we've cashed w/ Denver vs. NE our biggest play of the season - Triple Dime Play! We've put an "extra gear" since mid season by going 60-38 ATS (61%) L98 NFL plays or 45-25 ATS (64%) in the last 70 NFL Plays! For the Super Bowl, I've ALREADY released my second Triple Dime Play of the season - We are 7-1 ATS in our NFL Top Plays!

Moving on for today, we have one EARLY NBA game to work and I've already released one play for the game. I've included the NBA play as a BONUS play in my NFL Super Bowl Triple Dime Package.

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NBA Premium Card 02/01

NBA - 511 Chicago Bulls @ 512 New Orleans Pelicans

Play #1

The Bulls are coming from a nice win @SAS in their last game and we were able to cash w/ them a nice Triple Dime Play.

The X factor of their win = 58.3% reb/rate% + 52 points in the paint vs. a banged up SAS team! Well, I really think that CHI will have a similar edge vs. NO tonight and so, I’m taking them as my Single Dime Play.

Anthony Davis will play tonight but even with him on the court, NO is super shorthanded on the frontcourt…their center rotation right now is G. Stiemsma, Ajinca & Withey, enough said…

This is good news for a Bulls team that has a decent frontcourt and will dominate the game in this department.

NO has been constantly outrebounded lately and they are allowing 46.8 points in the paint per game in L9 games for some reason…

I understand that A. Davis will dominate Boozer on the offensive end but that’s the only edge that NO will have tonight as J. Butler will defend 1*1 Eric Gordon and it’s not going to be easy for Gordon to have a decent offensive game tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 511 Chicago Bulls ML @ -120 / 1.83 on Betonline

NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Indiana Pacers

Play #2

The Pacers struggled pretty badly in the first half vs. PHX in the last game by allowing 66 points! Eventually, they adjusted and bounced back in the 2nd half w/ strong 3rd quarter (allowed 11 points) but it was too late.

Their biggest problem was the complete inability to defend in transition vs. PHX: they allowed 21 fast break points & 11-20 FG in transition.

Obviously, we can expect them to be focused on defense tonight – IND is a strong “bounce back” team (8-1 ATS after losing one game) and at home their defense in this spot is particular nasty: they have allowed 84, 81, 82 and 66 points at home after losing one game.

I don’t expect IND to have any kind of transition defense problems vs. BKN tonight. Even though, BKN plays w/ small ball, they simply don’t have the same kind of speed when compared vs. PHX.

BKN is coming from a bad overall performance last night vs. OKC in which they grabbed only 17 rebounds but the good news is that the game basically ended in the first half – so Jason Kidd managed well the players’ minutes.

I’ve said several times that IND offense is a bit “streaky” especially w/ their perimeter and right now they are struggling: 5-21 3pts vs. LAL & 1-15 3pts in their last game vs. PHX!

After playing vs. some fast paced teams like PHX, LAL, DEN, SAC, PHX, GSW and LAC, I expect this contest to be a pure half court game w/ IND struggling to shoot from the outside & BKN struggling to score because…well, because they will face IND defense and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 505 Philadelphia 76ers @ 506 Detroit Pistons

Play #3

DET is pretty rested in this spot w/ 4 days off to rest as their last game vs. ATL was postponed, they will face a 76ers team playing their 3rd game in 4 games, so DET has some physical edge IMO.

However, the biggest mismatch in here is really related w/ matchups…

Both teams simply can’t shoot from the outside to save their lives… PHI is ranked PHI #29 in the league shooting 3pts% w/ 31.6% while DET is ranked dead last w/ 30.7%.

Obviously, with two poor shooting teams on the court, we really need to focus on rebounding & frontcourt being the X factor of this contest, and DET will simply crush the 76ers in these two areas!

DET huge size edge on the frontcourt is tremendous and they will use it to score down low w/ some ease. DET is 2-0 vs. PHI in this season, winning both games by double digits points. We should be dealing w/ a double digits pts line for them, and so w/ DET-8.5 spread line, we have the proper edge to take them as my Single Dime Play.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Detroit Pistons (-8.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 503 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 504 Washington Wizards

Play #4

NOTE: no detailed write up for this play

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Washington Wizards (+5.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada

NBA - 515 Miami Heat @ 516 New York Knicks

Play #5

NYK is playing some good basketball as of late, no doubt about it! However, just look for their opponents during this winning streak: CHA, LAL, BOS and CLE…not that impressive, right?!

They crushed the Cavs last game especially because CLE’s coach M. Brown did a terrible job in adjusting the lineups to matchup vs. NYK small ball, they allowed Tristan Thompson to matchup vs. J.R Smith! Obviously, Smith torched him and had a rare efficient offensive game w/ 8-16 FG for 19 points.

NYK defense is still horrible especially on the perimeter but by facing some really struggling/poor offensive teams, they were able to be decent…this won’t happen tonight vs. MIA! MIA is struggling indeed, but their offense remains solid as ever.

I.  Shumpert is OUT for this contest and so, NYK won’t have their best perimeter defensive player available for tonight. MIA is rested w/ 2 days off and this is a good opportunity for them to bounce back and make somehow a “statement” that they are still “alive”.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 Miami Heat (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 517 Sacramento Kings @ 518 San Antonio Spurs

Play #6

This play is pretty similar to my Triple Dime Play w/ Under DAL vs. SAC…obviously, we are not dealing w/ a 216 total point’s line, and so this is “only” a Single Dime Play but the principles are the same…

SAS is banged up and they have been pretty vulnerable on the frontcourt while being easily outrebounded by their opponents. The good news is that D. Cousins is OUT for tonight and it looks like T. Splitter will return to the lineup… without Cousins, SAC offense is almost 100% guard oriented and it makes easier for their opponents to guard them. I understand that they still scored 103 points last night vs. DAL but note that Gay & Thomas combined to attempt 37 FG’s vs. 18 FGA’s from the other 3 starters…these two players logged 36 and 42 minutes and so, I expect them to have a physical letdown while SAS defense will make a decent job in here.

On the end, SAS offense is super shorthanded on the wings and Tony Parker is banged up…. It’s hard for them to display the same sharp offense w/ so many injuries while they are playing @ slower pace as of late.

The first h2h game had 216 points w/ Cousins dominating down low w/ 11-23 FG, 29 pts and 14 rebounds while Manu Ginobili was the Spurs’ MVP w/ 9-16 FG for 28 points…this won’t happen tonight for sure!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517/518 Under 205 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 521 Toronto Raptors @ 522 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #7

POR has a great physical for tonight w/ +3days off to rest vs. TOR team that is playing b2b games and are coming from a game played in altitude @DEN!

So far in this season, POR’s game plan vs. “tired teams” at home has been pretty simple: outrun them as the OVER is 10-1 is this exact spot.

POR is coming from their WORST offensive performance of the season just because they allowed MEM to control the flow of the game – grind out game, and this Blazers team really isn’t efficient playing @slow tempo – this is another good reason for them to push the pace tonight.

On the other end, TOR actually did make some nice rotation last night @DEN, only Ross played 37 minutes while the other TOR’s players played lower minutes. TOR offense is playing w/ some great unselfishness w/ a great 1.73 A/TO ratios and they are creating good open looks especially w/ Lowry as a playmaker. Despite scoring “only” 100 points last game @DEN, TOR had 99 points w/ 7:43 to go….yes, they have scored only one point after, because otherwise, TOR would have scored easily +110 points!

My fair line for this contest is 210 points and so, I’m taking the Over in here as my Single Dime Play!

 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 521/522 Over 205.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes

NBA Free Premium Play 02/01: Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers

Brooklyn  at Indiana

NBA - 501 Brooklyn Nets @ 502 Indiana Pacers Play #2 The Pacers struggled pretty badly in the first half vs. PHX in the last game by allowing 66 points! Eventually, they adjusted and bounced back in the 2nd half w/ strong 3rd quarter (allowed 11 points) but it was too late. Their biggest problem was the complete inability to defend in transition vs. PHX: they allowed 21 fast break points & 11-20 FG in transition. Obviously, we can expect them to be focused on defense tonight – IND is a strong “bounce back” team (8-1 ATS after losing one game) and at home their defense in this spot is particular nasty: they have allowed 84, 81, 82 and 66 points at home after losing one game. I don’t expect IND to have any kind of transition defense problems vs. BKN tonight. Even though, BKN plays w/ small ball, they simply don’t have the same kind of speed when compared vs. PHX. BKN is coming from a bad overall performance last night vs. OKC in which they grabbed only 17 rebounds but the good news is that the game basically ended in the first half – so Jason Kidd managed well the players’ minutes. I’ve said several times that IND offense is a bit “streaky” especially w/ their perimeter and right now they are struggling: 5-21 3pts vs. LAL & 1-15 3pts in their last game vs. PHX! After playing vs. some fast paced teams like PHX, LAL, DEN, SAC, PHX, GSW and LAC, I expect this contest to be a pure half court game w/ IND struggling to shoot from the outside & BKN struggling to score because…well, because they will face IND defense and therefore, I’m taking the Under in here as my Single Dime Play! Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 501/502 Under 190.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Daily Message 02/01

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 279-229-7 ATS | +108.46 units

NBA 2013-14 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 279-229-7 ATS | +50.48 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 3-4-5 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +38.10 units

NFL 2013 RECORD 1-2-3 MM: 69-52-5 ATS | +17.30 units

NBA 2013-14 Record Spreedsheet (click here)
NFL 2013 Record Spreedsheet (click here)

NBA Yesterday recap:

Under DAL/SAC 216 Triple Dime WIN

Over BKN/OKC 197.5 Double Dime WIN

Over ORL/MIL 193.5 WIN

Memphis (-1) WIN

Charlotte (+3) WIN

Daily Message:

What more can I possibly say?

We are literally crushing the books right now in the NBA: 5-0 ATS SWEEP this Tuesday, 6-1 ATS this Wednesday, 3-1 ATS this Thursday, and last night we SWEPT the board by going 5-0 ATS in our plays to put us 19-2 ATS in the last 4 days.

Short term "trends" are always exciting but IMO we should look more for the long term, and the fact is that we are hitting almost 60% ATS in L300 NBA Plays - it's a pretty LARGE sample! A $100 Bettor would be UP $6660 during this stretch!

With this great day, obviously we've established a NEW "profit high" for the current NBA season: +108.46 units using my 3-4-5 MM or +50.48 units if you use a Regular play = 1 unit.

As I've "preaching" all season long: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"!

NFL SUPER BOWL UPDATE:  NBA is my main FORTE but we are enjoying a tremendous successful NFL season as well by hitting 57% ATS in ALL NFL Plays! In the Playoffs, we are 6-2-1 ATS and we've cashed w/ Denver vs. NE our biggest play of the season - Triple Dime Play! We've put an "extra gear" since mid season by going 60-38 ATS (61%) L98 NFL plays or 45-25 ATS (64%) in the last 70 NFL Plays! For the Super Bowl, I've ALREADY released my second Triple Dime Play of the season - We are 7-1 ATS in our NFL Top Plays!

Moving on for today, we have a BIG card of 12 to work, so let's do it. Once again, Just a reminder: "It's a marathon, not a sprint"! As usual stay tuned especially on my twitter @gomescapper for news about the release of content throughout the day!

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NBA Premium Card 01/31

NBA - 805 Memphis Grizzlies @ 806 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play #2

MEM is playing really well right now w/ the return of Marc Gasol and the additions of C. Lee and J. Johnson. Their defense has been phenomenal while offensively, they are quite decent because M. Conley is playing @ All star level while C. Lee is way better shooter vs. T. Allen and so, MEM has now a better floor spacing in my opinion.

Their road win @Portland a couple of days ago says it all, because MEM held one of the best offensive teams in the league @81 points playing at home while MEM was able to shoot 52% from the field!

I expect them to dominate the frontcourt battle against a MIN that is playing without N. Pekovic! I went w/ MIN-10.5 in their last game vs. NO because they had a favorable spot and matchup against a team that was playing without their 3 best “big men” in A. Davis, R. Anderson & J. Smith, but still MIN didn’t dominate NO down low: it was 50/50 battle on the boards while MIN was outscored in the paint 42-46.

Well, if MIN had some troubles vs. NO frontcourt, good luck then vs. MEM huge frontline!

MIN interior defense is allowing 66% FG at the rim in L10 games…

Also, I didn’t like the fact that vs. NO, Love & Martin attempted 44 FG’s vs. 13 FGA from the other 3 starters 3 starters Rubio + Brewer + Turiaf – it showed that MIN’ starting lineup somehow is one-dimensional and this is problematic vs. current MEM defense!

MIN won the first h2h game @MEM earlier on the season and Pekovic ended up being the MIN player w/ better +/- team points w/ +11! Without him, MEM will dominate the boards and ultimately, they are simply the best team in this matchup.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 805 Memphis Grizzlies (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 809 Sacramento Kings @ 810 Dallas Mavericks

Play #3

***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***

Ok, so we have two teams that are coming from AWFUL defensive performances in their last games and their coaches were pissed off about it:

Rick Carlisle was unhappy with his team's defense during Wednesday's game, and said that "everything is in play" as he looks to correct the problem.

"We got a lot of guys who are ready," Carlisle said. "We’ll keep looking at it every day. Our guys who haven’t played much practiced well today and I’m certain that they’re ready to go if needed."

+

"I told our team afterward that I am going to start playing guys who are willing to defend," coach Michael Malone said. "And if (we) are not ready to defend ... I can no longer be a hypocrite. I've been a hypocrite the whole year. I got the job in June and I preached defense and that's what I believe in. We're one of the worst defensive teams in the league."

As expected, DAL had tremendous problems vs. HOU in the last game (I had a play w/ HOU+3.5)… they just can’t defend properly vs. teams that have skilled “big” players. Not only Howard had 6-10 FG + 9-11 FT for 21 pts but also Terrence Jones had 7-10 FG for 16 points and even Donatas Motiejunas torched the Mavericks w/ 4-5 FG, 4-6 FT for  12 points – all frontcourt players combined to shot 17-25 FG 68% FG!

DAL’s poor interior defense can’t protect properly the basket…L2 games vs. HOU & DET they have allowed 56 points in the paint in both games! The good news for them is that D. Cousins won’t play tonight and without him, SAC offense is merely a guard-oriented offense – more favorable matchup for DAL! SAC in L4 games w/o him had just 14, 23, 15 and 20 assists!

Note that in the first h2h game between these two teams Cousins completely dominated the Maverics w/ 10-17 FG 12-14 FT, 32 pts and 19 rebounds!

I also expect SAC defense to be a bit better tonight after the warning from their coach. They faced lately some powerful frontcourt units in which they torched SAC bad interior defense (HOU, IND, DEN, UTA and MEM) but DAL don’t have such powerful physical frontline unit.

My fair line for this contest is 206 points and so we have the proper edge for a top play w/ Under!

Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 809/810 Under 216 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker