NBA Premium Card 05/02

NBA - 533 San Antonio Spurs @ 534 Dallas Mavericks

Play #1 & #2

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

It was tough for us to lose another close play w/ the Spurs in the last game, but in my opinion, it was pretty clear that the Mavericks have spend all their “tricks” in the series and they just can’t surprise the Spurs going for tonight’s game.

If you remember, early on the series, the Spurs struggled w/ taking care of the ball and in the last game they have committed just 6 TO’s! DAL’s coach Carlisle is playing “small ball” quite often and the Mavericks have been a “mere” jump shooting team – they have scored 28 points in the paint in L2 games! Obviously, the Mavericks have been competitive because they are hitting their outside shots especially w/ a red hot Vince Carter.

The good news is that the Spurs are finally taking advantage of their superior size on the front. Their reb/rate% of 51.8% in the last game was their best mark in the series, while the Spurs pounded DAL down low w/ 54 points in the paint w/ Tiago Splitter having a great game w/ 7-10 FG for 17 points, 12 rebounds and 5 assists!

I trust more a team that is committed to explore their edge down low & rebounding vs. a perimeter shooting team! Note that the Mavericks enjoyed big offensive games from Dirk Nowitzki (10-20 FG), Monta Ellis (8-18 FG) and Vince Carter (10-16 FG) and still, they were clearly outplayed by the Spurs!

I expect the Spurs to finish the job tonight in 6 games in a relatively low scoring game!

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 533 San Antonio Spurs (-3) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 533/534 Under 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

NBA - 535 Houston Rockets @ 536 Portland Trail Blazers

Play #3

This series has been great to watch as almost every single game went to the wire and for tonight, I expect a similar scenario and so, I think that we have some value w/ the Rockets.

While the Blazers were clearly the most consistent team in the first games of the series, I think that the Rockets are slowing making the right adjustments through the series.

After averaging just 17 assists per game in the first 4 contests of the series, the Rockets had their best mark in G5 w/ 23 assists while the Blazers had just 14! By starting w/ Howard and Asik on the front, the Rockets are dominating the glass while T. Jones have adjusted quite well coming off the bench!

The Rockets’ problems in this series = backcourt! Fortunately for them, Jeremy Lin was great in the last game w/ 9-15 FG for 21 points... James Harden didn’t rush things and finished w/ 7 assists and also, the Rockets had Patrick Beverley playing w/ fever and limited to only 21 minutes – that explains why POR’s backcourt had so great numbers in the last game!

I expect the Rockets’ backcourt to be solid tonight and so, w/ their usual dominance down low, we can expect them to be pretty competitive in here!

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 535 Houston Rockets (+4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker