NBA - 823 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 824 Denver Nuggets
Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 7 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Denver had a road trip in the East Coast, where they played at Washington and Charlotte, then they returned home to have a super game with the Lakers last Thursday, just to play at Portland in the following night. They will return home with just 1 day of rest to face Oklahoma City. Of course the Nuggets will be fired up for this game, but they are on a terrible spot for tonight, especially in comparison to the Thunder, who have been playing at home and without back-to-back games.
We are in presence of two explosive teams, but Oklahoma City has a much better outside game and that's what will make the difference tonight. The Nuggets with their style did whatever they wanted with Charlotte, who was playing their fourth game in five nights, they also crushed the Lakers at home who was playing on a back to back spot and then they won at Portland in a close game. All these teams simply didn't have the proper athleticism to hung with the Nuggets for a full game, but that's not the case of Oklahoma City, who is a very athletic team as well. If that wasn't enough, Oklahoma City is #4 in the league in rim defense with 61% FG allowed and even their transition defense has been also improving a lot. They are #19 in the league with a season average of 1.14 PPP allowed, but they allowed just 1.08 PPP over their last 10 games! Of course the Thunder won't make a defensive shutdown to Denver, but they have some arguments that Denver's recent opponents didn't have.
On the other hand, Oklahoma City is completely red hot from the outside with 34-77 (44.1%) 3pts since the All Star Break! Good teams that shoot well from the outside have a clear edge over Denver, whose defensive scheme relies in packing the paint. This is why Denver is #21 on 3pts defense with 36.9% allowed, besides being the single worst spot up defense in the league with 1.08 PPP allowed! We are in front of two aggressive teams, so this game will surely have a lot of free throws. The first game between these two teams went to overtime and had a total of 82 free throws! But this kind of scenario only favors the Thunder, how are #1 on FT with 83.6%, while Denver is #29 with 68.9%!
This series has turned out to be a rivalry. On the last game between these two teams, Russell Westbrook had a bizarre physical moment with Denver's mascot Rocky and all this stuff has been hyped out. On that game, Denver defeated the Thunder by 121-118 on overtime, but I remember that in that game Denver was on a better spot than Oklahoma City, who was coming from a tough game at Dallas in the previous night that had gone to overtime. Nevertheless, Denver won the game in an unexpected way with 8-18 3pts, with Corey Brewer being the team's MVP with 9-17 FG and 3-6 3pts. These were great numbers for a player that is shooting 42.2% FG and 29.3% 3pts this season. For tonight, Oklahoma City will be in a better spot than Denver and they will show that tonight why they are the best team in the Western Conference. Therefore, I'll be taking the Thunder in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 823 Oklahoma City Thunder (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5 Dimes
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