NBA - 707 Milwaukee Bucks @ 708 Boston Celtics
Projected Line: Boston by 12 points
There isn't a brilliant explanation for this pick but the fact that the spread line should be favoring Boston by at least a dozen points. I expect the Celtics to be a really good team, while the Bucks will be one of the biggest disappointments of the season.
Boston lost in Miami, but there's no shame in that. Miami is the better team and played better than the Celtics. However, it was clear that Boston's offense will be much better this season than they were last season. Fortunately for them, Milwaukee is very far from having the level and efficiency of Miami's offense, so Boston will have a good chance to bounce back defensively, while at the same time their offense should be quite good again.
I watched some of Milwaukee's preseason games and in my opinion coach Scott Skiles will have to deal with a lot of problems this season. The team lives almost exclusively from their outside shooting with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennings just taking too many shots. They will face Rajon Rondo and Courtney Lee tonight, with Kevin Garnett helping to fill the gaps, so I don't expect Milwaukee to have a great night in terms of perimeter shooting. Milwaukee's frontcourt is almost non-existent down low, as Ersan Ilyasova likes to shoot from a longer range and Samuel Dalembert just isn't a good player anymore in anything but providing some size and rebounding with shot blocking help. With the Bucks lacking a big offensive presence down low, Boston will easily stop Milwaukee's offense with their small ball.
Milwaukee saw their defensive numbers regressing big time last season and with their current roster, I don't see them improving those numbers anytime soon. Boston shot 52% FG and scored 27 fast break points against Miami and they have good conditions to have similar numbers tonight. I expect a very easy win for Boston tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 708 Boston Celtics (-7.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
No comments:
Post a Comment