Monday, August 6, 2012

Olympic Games 08/06: Men's Basketball - Argentina vs United States

Olympic Games - Men's Basketball - Argentina vs United States

Projected lines: 178 points | United States by 28 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***

This isn't a very important game for Argentina, as they will most likely be third on this group and as we are talking about a veteran team with so little depth, I expect them to rest their key players today as much as possible, especially when the quarter finals are already next Wednesday. Argentina, just like the other teams, will play their 5th game in 10 days and if we look to the minutes that Scola (35, 33, 36, 25) and Manu (32, 35, 25, 28) played in their previous four games, I believe Argentina has a clear flat spot for today.

On the other hand, the United States is coming from a letdown game against Lithuania, where they played absolutely no defense. I saw in their practice report that they put a lot of effort on defense for today's contest and they will surely have some "revenge" in mind after having just able to defeat Argentina by 6 points in a recent friendly game (86-80). The US team has a huge edge in terms of depth and athleticism against the undersized Argentinian team and I believe the United States will make a statement today against Argentina after a poor game against Lithuania and so, I'll take the US team to crush Argentina today. 

I also like the Under on this contest. Every single game the US has played so far on this competition has clearly gone Over the total posted, but today I like the spot for the Under, not only due to the US mindset for this game, as also the Argentinian playing style favors that, as they defend well in the perimeter and their offense also commits a small number of turnovers (7, 12, 8, 10 so far on this competition; they also only committed 13 TO in their friendly game against USA). This will mean less transition chances for the US and consequently, a slower pace than usual in the games involving the US team. Take the United States and the Under on this contest. 

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on Under 185,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on United States (-23) @ -108 / 1.926 on Pinnacle 

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